A Hurricane Could Make Landfall In Hawaii For 1st Time In 34 Years

Tropical Storm Lala is strengthening, poised to become a hurricane and potentially Hawaii's first direct landfall in 34 years, driven by an active El Niño. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island, with a Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County. Lala, currently at 60 mph, is forecast to bring life-threatening flooding, mudslides, and up to three feet of storm surge, starting Friday. While dry air and the islands' terrain might prevent an "official" direct hit, the Big Island is on the storm's "dirty side," ensuring severe impacts. Hawaii typically avoids such storms due to high pressure and cooler waters, making Lala a significant and rare threat. Residents must monitor this evolving situation closely.

As expected, the Pacific hurricane basin has been fairly active this year. Typically, it is during an El Niño, which continues to get stronger. Tropical Storm Lala has formed and could become the first hurricane to directly make landfall in Hawaii in 34 years. However, there are two reasons it may not. Here’s the latest information.

As of 2:00 am HST, the National Hurricane Center was still forecasting Lala to become a hurricane. At that time, maximum sustained winds were 60 miles per hour, and the storm was moving west-northwestward at 10 miles per hour. “Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday,” said NHC forecasters. “A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County,” They went on to say.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is likely in elevated terrain on the the Big Island of Hawaii, which is actually called the Hawaiʻi Island or Island of Hawaiʻi. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the next couple of days but dry air and the islands themselves could disrupt the storm too.

Multiple hazards are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides will impact the Big Island starting on Friday and spread westward across the island chain during the weekend. Areas of steep terrain will experience even more extreme conditions. Along the exposed windward and southern shores, a sustained period of heavy surf and dangerous waves could lead to beach erosion and coastal flooding, according to NHC. Up to 3 feet of storm surge is also expected throughout the archipelago.

Let’s be clear. Hawaii is going to experience the impacts of Lala starting this weekend. There is virtual certainty with that statement. However, whether it makes a “direct landfall” is still up in the air, but it is going to be very close based on the latest computer model information. "The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.," noted NHC.

Unfortunately for the Big Island and the rest of the island chain, they are on the “dirty” side of the eye. The winds, storm surge and even tornadic activity tend to be more extreme or prevalent in the right-front quadrant because of the translational motion of the storm and counterclockwise rotation working together. My professional instincts tell me that whether it makes direct landfall or not, it will have “hit” the island from an impact standpoint. Remember, hurricanes are not dots and lines on a map. They are massive systems.

I answered this question a few days ago in another Forbes.com piece about Hurricane Fausto that was threatening the region but ultimately skirted north of the islands. “This may be surprising, but meteorology, oceanography and geography are primary factors. High pressure to the northeast of Hawaii is like a meteorological defense system for the state. It tends to help weaken approaching storms or steer them away, I wrote. ”Additionally, waters tend to be cooler north and east of the state," I went on to say.

“Should Lala reach hurricane intensity — with sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour — it would join an exclusive group,” wrote Judson Jones and Amy Graff at the New York Times weather team. “Since 1950, only 19 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of Hawaii, eight of them during El Niño years. Just two have made official landfall in Hawaii: Hurricane Dot in 1959 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992,” They added.

Large volcanoes like Mauna Kea are present on the Big Island. It will be interesting to see how the mountainous terrain of the Big Island wobbles the storm or affects its structure. Either way, people in Hawaii should continue to monitor Lala carefully.