Caleb Durbin And The Red Sox Have Turned Their Seasons Around
The Boston Red Sox, under Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow, initially struggled, firing their coaching staff and sitting at 32-46. Breslow, hired in October 2023, faced criticism for poor communication and a losing record. However, the team has turned its season around under interim manager Chad Tracy, with a 15-game winning streak. This surge propelled them to 4 games above .500 and into a wild card spot. A key factor in this success is third baseman Caleb Durbin, who, despite a slow start, is now outperforming high-priced free agent Alex Bregman. Durbin provides similar production at a fraction of the cost, validating Breslow's value-driven strategy. Ownership supports Breslow's long-term vision, and the team's recent success is winning over skeptical fans as the trade deadline approaches.
The Boston Red Sox hired Craig Breslow to be their Chief Baseball Officer on October 25, 2023. He took the reigns from Chaim Bloom who had been let go at season’s end. Breslow, a former pitcher and Yale graduate, supposedly brought baseball know-how and a player’s mentality to the front office. It has not worked out that way. One of the repeated gripes about Breslow is that he does not communicate well with his players. But that would not be an issue if he could put a winning team on the field.
That most certainly was not the case through nearly the first half of the season. After 78 games, Boston was 32-46, had two of their best players on the IL (Garrett Crochet since late April and Roman Anthony since early May), and had already fired essentially the whole coaching staff, including beloved manager Alex Cora.
Interim manager Chad Tracy, brought up from Triple-A Worcester, had the unenviable task of trying to right the ship while learning on the fly. By all accounts he kept a steady hand, trusted the process, and allowed the team to evolve and mature. And then lightning struck.
After losing to the woeful Rockies 8-6 in Denver, the Red Sox came home and “mopped”* the hated Yankees, including a walk-off win in the 10th inning of the final game of the series. They then swept the Nationals to finish the homestand. Heading west, they took three straight from the Angels, won all three against the White Sox, and went into the All-Star break with a sweep of the Mets in Flushing. They came out of the break taking mopping the Rays, and then the first two against the Orioles. After 15 consecutive wins, the Red Sox found themselves four games above .500. Baltimore snapped the streak with a win in the second game of a double header, but Boston came back with another win against Toronto. They are now in the second wild card spot in the American League.
There are many reasons for the this turnaround, but one can be found on the left side of the diamond, extremely close to the fans lucky enough to sit in those box seats.
Prior the season, much was made of Boston’s failure to sign third baseman Alex Bregman, who brought a steady glove at third, a steady right-handed bat in the middle of the order, and a steadying presence in the clubhouse. While it is difficult to quantify his impact in the Cubs’ locker room, on the field this year Bregman is slashing just .237/.333/.355, with 10 home runs. His replacement in the Back Bay was Caleb Durbin, acquired from the Brewers. Durbin got off to a horrific start, making Red Sox fans question the failure to sign Bregman even more. But over the past 31 games, Durbin is slashing .318/.390/.555, with twelve extra base hits. With his hot streak – for the season – his stats are roughly the same as Bregman’s. Except Durbin is making less than $800,000, and Bregman makes that amount every three and half games.
The Cubs signed Bregman for five years, which will take him through his age-36 season, at $35 million per. He has been a consistent hitter and fielder for most of his career, so this year could simply be an aberration. Or it could be the beginning of a slow descent. The offer from the Red Sox that Bregman turned down was for five years and $165 million (with deferments).
Durbin, on the other hand, is in his second season, came in third in Rookie of the Year voting last year, and is under team control through 2031. The Red Sox can pay him what they want (at or above league minimum, which is still TBD as they negotiate the new CBA) for the next two years.
If nothing else, Boston will be paying approximately $32 million per year less for their everyday third baseman for the next two seasons. And even assuming arbitration numbers equivalent to what similar players have been paid*, Durbin will still be a massive value and discount.
*In their first year of arbitration, these players settled as follows: Brendan Donovan: $2.85 million; Nico Hoerner: $2.5 million; Tommy Edman: $4.2 million. The latter two signed extensions before going to arbitration a second time, while Donovan signed for $5.8 million.
It may be that the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs and that Bregman turns his season around and comes up huge for the Cubs in October. It may that the Fenway Faithful are not done wringing their hands over the lack of right-handed thump in the lineup and Bregman’s tutelage with the young core. But Breslow did not hide who he was when John Henry hired him. He had the same view of the game as Billy Beane when Henry tried to hire him in 2003; and the same view as Theo Epstein, who Henry hired when Beane passed. In fact, the only head of baseball operations the Red Sox have had this century who didn’t hue to value over headlines was Dave Dombrowski. He did his job, built a winner, and then was shown the door. Said differently, there is no one right way in Boston.
Breslow is sticking with his plan, and ownership seems to be on board, even if the fans may not always be. That said, having the longest winning streak since the days of Ted Williams, and winning 22 of 26, may win over some doubters. Let’s see what Breslow does at the trade deadline.