Chinese Auto Brands Lead Japanese In Western Europe; VW Suffers

Chinese car brands have surpassed Japanese rivals in Western Europe for the first time in Q2, signaling a major shift. European brands, particularly Volkswagen, are losing significant market share amidst an "existential crisis" driven by more efficient Chinese EV and plug-in hybrid technology. Overall European sales rose 13% in June, with EV sales surging 52%. However, the German auto industry warns of inevitable job cuts and plant closures, with VW considering up to 100,000 job losses. The EU is responding with an Industrial Accelerator Act to support local production and adapt regulations, as experts describe the situation as "Darwinian" for manufacturers failing to adapt. Tesla was a big gainer.

Chinese sedan and SUV brands, regardless of production location, edged out Japanese brands in Western Europe during the second quarter for the first time, while during the first six months local manufacturers lost almost three percentage points of market share led by the Volkswagen brand, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.

Overall, European sales in June jumped 13% to 1.38 million, according to Germany’s Dataforce, as electric vehicle sales spurted 52%, inspired by rising prices for gasoline and diesel because of the Iran conflict.

Problems at Volkswagen have reminded investors that Europe’s established automakers are in the midst of an existential crisis because of Chinese competition, said to be at least 30% ahead in efficiency and leading with EV and plug-in hybrid technology.

Hildegard Mueller, head of the German automotive industry association, Verband der Automobilindustrie, recently said job cuts and plant closures are inevitable across the European auto industry.

“The situation in the whole (European) automotive industry is like the discussion in VW,” Mueller said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, according to Automotive News Europe.

Volkswagen recently said up to 100,000 jobs may have to go, while four German factories could be closed. VW and the unions are currently negotiating about this.

“Not every production location can be there in the future so there must be programs for restructuring,” Mueller said.

The European Union acknowledges the crisis and is currently guiding the Industrial Accelerator Act through the European Parliament. The IAA, among other things, wants to incentivize small EV production, decide on some dilution of the rules which demand that all new cars have zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2035 (which effectively means only EVs may apply), and perhaps to include plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the tariff regime. This currently only applies to Chinese EVs. A “made in Europe” provision may seek to benefit autos produced locally.

Professor Stefan Bratzel, director of Germany’s Center of Automotive Management, described the global automotive industry crisis as “Darwinian”, as European, Korean and Japanese manufacturers prospects are thrown into turmoil by Chinese manufacturers. U.S. manufacturers have so far been immune to this, at least on their home territory, as huge tariffs bar Chinese entry.

“Those who fail to adapt quickly to the new market and technological conditions risk being eliminated in the long run or losing their independence.” Bratzel said in a report.

Non-Chinese manufacturers need to make big productivity gains, reduce complexity, and slash costs.

“The year 2026 is therefore likely to further accelerate consolidation and restructuring in the global automotive industry,” Bratzel said.

Schmidt Automotive Research said in a report in the second quarter Chinese brands across all fuels outsold Japanese brands for the first time by 352,098 to 350,186. Market share reached 10.7%.

“The likes of Toyota, Nissan and Mazda are at risk of falling below 10% market share, something that hasn’t occurred on an annual basis since 1982. Korean brands meanwhile achieved sales of 230,066, with their market share dropping to 7% during the latest quarter,” founder Matt Schmidt said.

Schmidt cautioned that Chinese sales might have been influenced by technical factors, like sales seeking to pre-empt a possible tariff regime for PHEVs.

“SAIC’s MG maintained its position as the number one Sino brand just in front of BYD. Chery is now just 0.3 percentage points behind the leaders, both of which commanded 2.5% market share so far this year,” Schmidt said.

“European brands lost 2.8 percentage points year on year during the opening 6 months, contracting to below two-thirds of the market (65.1%), with VW brand contributing the most to those losses, seeing a 1 percentage point year on year fall in market share and in risk of dipping below 10% share for the first time in over two decades on an annual basis. Tesla was a major gainer, gaining 0.8 points to 2.5% share, adding more headaches to incumbents,” Schmidt said in the report.