Dearth Of Reliable Data Plagues Crude Oil Market Assessments
Global crude oil markets are plagued by confusion due to unreliable data, hindering accurate assessments by analysts and companies. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently estimated higher oil flows from the Arabian Gulf, totaling 15 million barrels per day, including through the Strait of Hormuz, pipelines, and previously hidden shipments. This figure, higher than prevailing estimates, suggests more oil is reaching markets, explaining the surprisingly muted crude price spikes despite ongoing conflicts. However, the International Energy Agency's August report still projects a nearly 2 million bpd deficit, attributing it to the Strait's disruption, yet current prices don't reflect such a severe shortage. The IEA also significantly revised its supply contraction forecast, underscoring the "fog of war" and unprecedented uncertainty in global oil supply and demand, further complicated by rising non-Middle East production and attacks on Russian refineries. Official reports are merely "best educated guesses."
Confusion continues to rule the day related to global crude oil markets as a dearth of reliable data related to oil flows frustrates the ability of analysts and companies alike to make accurate assessments. Recent reports by both U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and the International Energy Agency illustrate the challenge.
On Tuesday, August 11, Secretary Wright posted an estimate on his X account that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz for the previous 7 days had been much higher than prevailing estimates:
“Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day,” Wright says. “When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day. On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.”
Wright’s statement was quickly challenged by several accounts on X which have sought to attract traffic and followers by posting data related to tanker transits through the Strait since the crisis began. What some seem to ignore here, though, is that transits through the Strait do not necessarily equate to the Secretary’s specific language of “oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz.” Wright’s specific language implies his numbers would include tankers that had been sitting idle to the east of Hormuz or which were loaded at ports maintained by the UAE and Oman on the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea.
Wright appeared to confirm that discrepancy in a follow-up post in which he said the Energy Department (DOE) coordinates with the U.S. military to maintain “the best available data related to oil and oil products leaving the Arabian gulf.” The Secretary added that his numbers also include tankers which had transited the Strait of Hormuz with their lights and transponders turned off, keeping them hidden from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and tracking satellites.
The generally muted spikes in crude prices in reaction to major events in the Iran Conflict have made it apparent since March that more oil was exiting the Middle East region than estimated by authoritative sources. While the international Brent index price did spike as high as $114/barrel in mid-May, it quickly fell to sub-$100 levels as crude continued to reach markets despite predictions of impending doom.
The confusion stemming from the fog of war has regularly stumped the experts as paper and physical markets alike refused to perform as expected, defying the best intentions of authoritative sources like DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA),
For its own part, the IEA says in its August Oil Market Report that the global crude market continues to run a deficit of almost 2 million barrels per day. “The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts international supply chains and curtails product availability,” the agency’s report says. “Elevated fuel prices are putting further downward pressure on oil use.”
But how elevated are current prices, really? A persistent supply deficit of that magnitude would normally send index prices soaring, yet the U.S. domestic West Texas Intermediate index price sat near $83/barrel as of this writing on August 12, little different from its September 2024 level when the market was relatively in balance. The current U.S. average price for regular gasoline at the pump of just over $4.00 per gallon is significantly higher than levels seen last winter but is not really abnormally high in the context of recent years.
For the 12 months of 2026, the IEA now predicts global supply to contract by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2025, a modest reduction considering the agency also estimates that a whopping 8.3 million bpd remains shut-in due to the Iran Conflict. Rising production from non-Middle East regions like South America, the United States, and Canada since January have helped to close what would otherwise have been a yawning gap.
But again, it is important to point out that this is the IEA’s best guess, one that is 600,000 bpd higher than the agency’s best guess in its July report, a 16% rise in just one month. It is also key to note that the Iran Conflict is not the only war creating fog around such projections. Ukraine’s successful drone assaults on myriad Russian refineries have also added a good deal of uncertainty to market estimates and recalibrated flows of both crude oil and refined products in recent months.
What it all adds up to is an almost unprecedented degree of uncertainty surrounding the true supply/demand balance on the global crude oil market. The Energy Department and the IEA are obligated to keep publishing their best educated guesses, but it is important to keep in mind that that is all they really are.