Democrats’ push for generational change could hit a wall in Massachusetts

Senator Ed Markey led Representative Seth Moulton in two new polls of the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts, as the longtime incumbent seeks to hold off another generational challenge.

An anti-incumbent wave has swept through the Democratic primaries ahead of the midterms, with several longtime members of Congress losing to political newcomers. Markey, 80, has drawn a challenge from Moulton, 47, who has argued it is time for new leadership in the Bay State.

Democrats have been confronting questions about the age of some of their top politicians over the past few years. Those calls grew after backlash over former President Joe Biden’s decision to run for a second term despite age concerns that grew after a debate against President Donald Trump in June 2024 that eventually led to his withdrawal. The debate was seen as a pivotal turning point in the election that boosted Trump’s campaign to return to the White House.

Although many Democrats want fewer octogenarians and a new generation of leadership, Markey appears well-positioned to fend off the challenge from Moulton, according to new polls from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Suffolk University released this week.

While Moulton has sought to make the race about Markey's age and has emphasized calls for new leadership, Markey has focused on the ideological and policy differences between the two, casting himself as more in line with voters on issues like health care.

Markey is viewed as one of the most progressive senators in office, while Moulton is a moderate who has criticized the party on transgender rights and has not supported Medicare for All. Markey's focus on his progressive bona fides makes the race unique from other contentious primaries, where challengers have more often been more progressive than incumbents. Markey supporters believe a race defined by ideology, not age, could benefit him in such a progressive state.

Markey has built up a consistent polling lead over Moulton, who currently represents a district based around Massachusetts’ North Shore. Markey has served in the United States Senate since 2013 and previously served in Congress since 1976. Moulton has represented his district since 2015.

The UMass Amherst poll showed Markey with a wide lead over Moulton, holding a 28-point advantage, 60 percent to 32 percent when leaners were pushed. It surveyed 800 registered voters, including 445 Democratic primary voters, from August 5-12, 2026.

The Suffolk poll showed a closer race but still gave Markey a 15-point advantage, 52 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided. It surveyed 500 likely voters from August 13-16, 2026, and was sponsored by The Boston Globe.

Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science and director of the UMass poll, told Newsweek that it would be difficult for Moulton to unseat Markey, whose approval rating remains in the 80s among Democratic primary voters.

“You need to provide a real reason as to why there needs to be a change in leadership. To date, the only reason that Representative Moulton has provided is Senator Markey’s age, his long tenure in the U.S. Congress and the need for generational change,” he said. “What our polling is showing, as well as the polling of Suffolk and others, is that that’s not resonating with the Democratic electorate.”

Taylor Hebble, a spokesperson for Moulton, told Newsweek that public polling “has a recent history of being wildly wrong.”

“Just look at Wisconsin and Michigan, where double-digit polling leads evaporated on Election Day. If you want to know how this race is going, look at Ed Markey’s recent actions: He is skipping candidate forums and taking $62,000 from Chuck Schumer – away from battleground races. Massachusetts is ready for change,” Hebble said.

Newsweek reached out to Markey’s campaign for comment via his press contact form.

Several older incumbent Democrats in places like New York, Colorado and Connecticut have lost to younger challengers, many of whom are anti-establishment and more progressive. But the dynamics of this race are different, according to experts.

“Here, instead of the upstart challenger being young and progressive and the incumbent being more moderate, if not a member of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, we have a senator who is older and viewed by many voters as the more progressive candidate. But also, who has clear progressive bona fides,” he said.

Markey has emphasized his support for progressive policies like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All on the campaign trail, while Moulton’s past comments opposing the inclusion of transgender athletes in girls’ sports have come up as an issue for him in polling, Nteta said.

Costas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek Markey is an “institution” in Massachusetts but that many voters do have reservations about his age. Markey will be hard to beat, but it is not impossible, he said.

“Ideologically, [Markey] is perceived to be to the left of Moulton, and given that primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme than in general elections, this is a case in which it might serve Markey well,” he said.

He noted that Moulton is also not quite viewed as an outsider, having served in the House of Representatives for a decade.

“Voters may not be viewing him as a non-incumbent as other candidates across the country who have been able to ride that anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave have managed to do,” he said.

Markey has been able to beat generational challenges in the past.

In 2020, then-Representative Joe Kennedy III ran against Markey in the Democratic primary on a platform of generational change, but Markey won that race by nearly 10 points. He did so by unifying more progressive voters in the solidly blue state, winning endorsements from top progressives.

He also won support among younger Democrats, who helped build his social media presence on the “Markeyverse,” a network of meme accounts that supported his reelection.

Still, Moulton is well-known across the state and garnered national attention when he ran a longshot bid for president in 2020 but struggled to gain momentum over more well-known candidates. Some voters have welcomed his calls for new leadership, but his more moderate policies may not be playing as well with progressives in the state.

For instance, Moulton faced backlash from many Democrats last year over remarks about transgender athletes in an interview with The New York Times. He said at the time, “I have two little girls. I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete.”

Some other recent polls suggest a closer race.

A University of New Hampshire poll, which surveyed 367 likely voters from June 18-23, 2026, showed Markey up 6 points, 41 percent to 35 percent. An earlier Emerson College poll, which surveyed 451 likely voters from May 3-4, showed Markey up 5 points, 37 percent to 32 percent.

Panagopoulos said he believes there is still a path to victory for Moulton in Massachusetts if he is able to mobilize his base of voters, as primaries often come down to turnout. His campaign needs to spend the coming weeks making their case “effectively” and harping on its strengths, including the generational change argument.

“Turnout is going to be crucial in this election because primaries tend to attract fewer voters, and the composition of the electorate will matter tremendously in this primary for the two candidates involved,” he said.

Nteta said politics can sometimes “surprise you” and that “anything can happen” in the final weeks. Moulton could benefit if he is perceived as more engaged and energetic in the final debate against Markey or if he is able to win over more moderate voters in the state.

He said it’s an “uphill climb” for Moulton but that anything is possible in the closing weeks of the campaign.

The primary is set for September 1, 2026.

Attorney John Deaton is viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee, but the general election is viewed as less competitive. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Massachusetts in 2024 by 25 points over President Donald Trump, and the environment is widely expected to favor Democrats by analysts due to Trump’s declining national approval rating.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as safe or solid for Democrats.