ENOUGH ALREADY: After a fraught weekend which began with an Iranian drone strike on a commercial ship, prompting U.S. attacks on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, to which Iran responded by targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, triggering another round of “defensive strikes” from the U.S. — both sides have agreed to “stand down for now,” according to a senior U.S. official, who spoke to reporters last night.

The official said technical talks are on track, both sides would continue talks on “all areas” of the memorandum of understanding, and that “vessels can move freely.” There has been no response from Iran as of this morning.

The escalatory cycle of tit-for-tat strikes began Thursday as Iran launched drone attacks apparently aimed at discouraging ships from using the southern route through the Strait, which hugs the Omani coast, and instead use the northern route, which goes through Iranian territorial waters. It’s all about control of the Strait, which Iran insists, under the MOU signed this month, allows Tehran to administer the waterway. 

“According to the MoU signed between Iran and the United States, any interference in this matter will only complicate the situation, delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and increase tensions,” Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a news conference Sunday in Pakistan. “As we witnessed over the past two nights, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have already contributed to rising tensions and confrontations.”

“Iran’s strikes may reflect an Iranian effort to dissuade the Gulf states from resisting Iranian control over the Strait,” the Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis published last night. “The IRGC Navy stated on June 27 that U.S. strikes on Iran violated the ceasefire and will result in the complete halt of all diplomatic processes.”

TRUMP: ‘A FOOLISH VIOLATION’: Trump’s frustration with Iran began with a low simmer on Friday, when he told reporters, “I don’t like the fact that they took a shot yesterday, actually four, we knocked down three,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “A very expensive ship, and it was fine, but it took a little beating. They shouldn’t be doing that.” On Truth Social, Trump called the attack “a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement.”

“One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way,” Trump posted. Later, he told reporters, “You’ll find out” what the U.S. response will be. By Saturday, Trump’s frustration had boiled over, and he was once again resorting to apocalyptic threats to destroy the whole country. 

“United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn!” Trump fumed on Truth Social. “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”

Trump was asked by a reporter on Friday what he thought was motivating Iran to break the ceasefire. Trump responded, “They are a little bit different. That’s why.”

HAPPENING TODAY: RUSSIAN GAS SHORTAGE WORSENS: As Ukrainian deep-strike drones continue to damage and destroy critical oil and gas infrastructure in Russia, President Vladimir Putin continues to talk tough while rejecting an offer from Volodymyr Zelensky for a reciprocal agreement to suspend long-range strikes on each other. 

Yesterday, Zelensky said in a post on X that his forces successfully attacked oil refineries in Russia’s Krasnodar and Yaroslavl regions, “We continue our operations that weaken Russia’s ability to wage this war. Each of our long-range sanctions means fewer resources serving Russia’s war machine, and another step toward peace.”

“I know why Zelensky is targeting our infrastructure, and it won’t work,” Putin told a reporter Sunday. “Their objective is to create uncertainty among us, undermine confidence in our own strength, and, ideally, divide Russian society. They also seek to force Russia to suspend the offensive of our troops, even if only temporarily, in order to create conditions for starting negotiations on terms favorable to our opponent.”

“We will not give them that chance,” Putin said. “It’s obvious why that proposal is being made: our retaliatory strikes deep inside Ukraine are far more powerful, more painful, and, frankly, more destructive, causing serious consequences for the Kyiv regime.”

A RARE ADMISSION: In a Kremlin meeting with his energy ministers, Putin acknowledged for the first time publicly that Ukraine’s concentrated attack on Russian refineries was causing fuel shortages and long gas lines throughout the country, while insisting the situation would be back to normal by next month.

“You are well aware that problems for car owners and businesses persist: unfortunately, there are still queues at petrol stations, and some highly demanded fuel brands may be hard to find,” Putin told his ministers. “Of course, we are aware of the difficulties agricultural producers and farms face.”

“The largest oil refineries are employing their full capacities,” Putin said. “It is estimated that the production of primary fuels will exceed the June levels as early as July.” Putin also revealed that Russia has had to tap into its oil reserves, but insisted it has only used 4% of the 1.7 million barrels of gas it has stored for emergencies.

“Despite the fact that we are using reserves now, Russia’s petrol reserves are currently almost equal to the volume recorded in the same period of 2025.” he said. 

Washington Examiner: Iran launches drone assault on Bahrain and a ship is hit in Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire frays

Washington Examiner: US military launches ‘additional strikes’ against Iran after ship attacked in Strait of Hormuz

Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure takes a toll, but falls short of a game changer

Washington Examiner: ICE backtracks on warehouses purchased under Kristi Noem that would have detained illegal immigrants

Washington Examiner: Think Trump is over Greenland? Think again. 

Wall Street Journal: We Investigated Damage From Iran to a U.S. Naval Base. Here’s What We Found.

12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Middle East in Crisis, NATO Disarray: The Stakes for the Ankara Summit,” with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Levent Gumrukcu; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith; Soner Cagaptay, WINEP Turkey expert; and Dana Stroul, WINEP director of research

7 p.m. 3825 Wisconsin Ave. NW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, with co-author Maggie Haberman, White House correspondent for the New York Times; and co-author Jonathan Swan, White House correspondent for the New York Times https://politics-prose.com/haberman-and-swan

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense and Security Department in-person and virtual Global Security Forum: “America at 250: A Defining Moment for American Statecraft and Military Power” https://www.csis.org/events/2026-global-security-forum-america-250

9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “Rethinking Hungary-Ukraine Relations: A New Start for Reconciliation,” with Tamas Csiki Varga, principal of SV/SD Counseling; Sergiy Gerasymchuk, deputy director of Ukrainian PRISM; Balazs Tarnok, director of research, Ludovika University of Public Service John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics; Daniel Hegedus, GMFUS senior visiting fellow; and Zsuzsanna Vegh, GMFUS program officer https://www.gmfus.org/event/rethinking-hungary-ukraine-relations

10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee hearing: “Oversight Hearing – U.S. Office of Management and Budget,” with testimony from OMB Director Russell Vought http://appropriations.house.gov

2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee and Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee joint hearing: “Northern Exposure: Assessing the Evolving Threat Landscape at America’s Northern Border” http://homeland.house.gov

2:30 p.m. — National Aeronautics and Space Administration virtual discussion: “Updates to NASA’s plans to build a Moon Base on the lunar surface,” with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman; and Carlos Garcia-Galan, NASA Moon Base program manager https://www.youtube.com/nasa

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual briefing: “Previewing the NATO Summit,” with Seth Jones, CSIS Harold Brown chair; Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Jerry McGinn, director of the CSIS Center for the Industrial Base; and Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing-previewing-nato-summit

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The Future of AI-Driven Cyber Defense,” with Lauryn Williams, deputy director and senior fellow, CSIS Strategic Technologies Program; and Carol Kuntz, non-resident adjunct fellow, CSIS Strategic Technologies Program https://www.csis.org/events/future-ai-driven-cyber-defense

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “ Space Force advocacy on Capitol Hill,” with Brig. Gen. Nikki Frankino, Space Force legislative liaison; and Melissa Blakesley, Space Force associate deputy assistant secretary for congressional budget and appropriations liaison https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/brig-gen-nikki-r-frankino/

9:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “U.S.-Iran Negotiations: The Fraught Road Ahead,” with Robert Malley, senior fellow at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs; Alan Eyre, Middle East Institute fellow; Michael Singh, Washington Institute for Near East Affairs senior fellow; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/06/us-iran-negotiations-the-fraught-road-ahead

6 p.m. EDT / 4 p.m. MDT Keystone, South Dakota — President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a Freedom 250 event at Mount Rushmore National Memorial. https://events.freedom250.org/credentialing/w5gr9pp3jv

6 p.m. 1919 Connecticut Ave. NW, — Merrifield Venture Partners, LLC – GoCity Group “Countdown 250 Ball,” with a full-scale patriotic celebration across multiple ballrooms and entertainment areas, live music, immersive attractions, American history, honored guests, and a midnight countdown to America’s 250th birthday.” https://countdown250.allamericanball.com/

8 p.m. West Lawn, U.S. Capitol — National Park Service, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the Department of the Army, the Boeing Company, American Airlines and PBS host the Independence Day annual “A Capitol Fourth Concert,” with Jack Everly, principal pops conductor of the Indianapolis Symphony Orchestra; and the National Symphony Orchestra https://www.pbs.org/a-capitol-fourth/