EU faces steep challenges if external oil and gas supplies dry up — UnionPress

With imports accounting for the bulk of its energy, the bloc would have to rely on dwindling reserves, accelerated renewables and new cross‑border storage schemes to avoid disruption.

European Union imports about 97% of its crude oil and 88% of its natural gas, making the bloc highly exposed to price spikes and supply interruptions. Petroleum supplies 38% of the EU's energy mix, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounts for roughly 21% of total consumption.

Last year the biggest sources of oil were the United States, Norway and Kazakhstan. In the gas market, the United States overtook Russia, delivering 56% of the bloc's imports after sanctions and a new EU‑US trade agreement shifted the flow of supplies.

Energy analyst Isaac Levi of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air explains that the EU has "emergency mechanisms" but no single switch that would protect both oil and gas simultaneously. Oil stocks are mandatory, while gas security relies on storage targets, national emergency plans and solidarity rules that allow member states to share resources in a crisis.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, member states have been rebuilding gas reserves. The largest underground storage sites sit in Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Austria, together holding two‑thirds of the bloc's total capacity. EU law requires at least 80% of storage to be filled before winter, yet 2025 is set to see the lowest gas inventories in fifteen years.

Oil storage rules are similarly strict: countries must hold enough to cover either 90 days of average net imports or 61 days of average consumption, whichever is higher. France, Germany, Italy and Spain hold the biggest strategic oil stocks.

With 88% of transport fuel and about 30% of household heating gas imported from outside the EU, a sudden halt would quickly expose remaining dependencies. "Consumers would face disruptions," Levi warns.

According to Bruegel senior fellow Heather Grabbe, the EU spends roughly €400 billion a year on fossil‑fuel imports and another €100 billion on subsidies for those fuels. That level of outlay underscores how deeply the bloc's economy is tied to external energy markets.

Renewables are beginning to shift the balance. In 2025, wind and solar generated 30% of EU electricity, overtaking fossil fuels, which supplied 29% for the first time. Overall, clean power accounted for 48% of the bloc's electricity that year, and total energy demand has been falling since 2022.

Nevertheless, Europe is still winding down its own oil and gas production without having fully replaced the lost output with domestic alternatives. "We are managing fossil‑fuel risk rather than eliminating it fast enough," Levi says. "Every year we delay the clean‑energy transition, Europe pays the price." He estimates that in 2025 the average EU citizen bore about €880 in costs for imported fossil fuels, a figure that exceeds the bloc's investment in clean‑energy infrastructure.

Renewables cannot be stockpiled like oil or gas, prompting researchers to explore coordinated cross‑border strategic reserves of electricity and hydrogen to buffer periods of low generation. Levi stresses that Europe must avoid swapping dependence on imported oil for dependence on imported clean‑technology components. "Investing in home‑grown renewable generation is essential," he argues.

Think‑tank EMBER projects that maximising electrification across industry, transport and heating could halve the bloc's fossil‑fuel import share by 2040. The European Commission's 2024‑2030 climate roadmap already targets near‑complete reliance on domestically produced clean electricity by 2040; today, about 70% of EU power comes from such sources.

Evidence from the 2026 energy crisis shows that countries with higher shares of renewable electricity were better insulated from fossil‑fuel price shocks. Levi notes that the five cleanest power systems saved consumers €8.5 billion, roughly 58% more than the five most fossil‑fuel‑dependent members.

Researchers at the Technical University of Zurich have built an interactive platform modelling hundreds of scenarios for achieving energy independence by 2050. The tool compares options such as expanded offshore wind, large‑scale battery storage, hydrogen pipelines and demand‑side management, highlighting trade‑offs between cost, land use and grid stability.

Policymakers face a choice: continue to rely on imported hydrocarbons while gradually scaling up renewables, or accelerate the transition to avoid a future supply shock. Strengthening the grid, expanding cross‑border interconnections and creating joint strategic reserves are already on the agenda of the European Commission and several member‑state coalitions.

Trade unions have warned that any abrupt reduction in fossil‑fuel imports without adequate alternatives could jeopardise jobs in sectors still tied to oil and gas logistics. At the same time, industry groups argue that a rapid shift to renewables could raise electricity prices in the short term, affecting competitiveness.

For households, the stakes are clear. A prolonged shortage of gas for heating would hit the most vulnerable families hardest, especially in colder northern regions where winter demand spikes. Likewise, a sudden loss of oil imports would pressure transport costs, potentially eroding real wages already squeezed by inflation.

In the coming months, the EU's energy ministers are expected to review the adequacy of current storage targets and discuss the feasibility of a bloc‑wide strategic reserve for electricity and green hydrogen. The outcome will shape whether Europe can weather a total cut‑off without resorting to emergency rationing or costly price controls.

Ultimately, the analysis suggests that while the EU possesses emergency stockpiles, they are insufficient to sustain the bloc for an extended period without external supplies. The most viable route to genuine energy security lies in a faster, coordinated rollout of renewable generation, reinforced grid infrastructure and a shared approach to strategic reserves.