Former French PM François Bayrou warns of inevitable financial crisis — The Debate
Bayrou says France's tax revenue will not cover debt interest, raising alarm for the euro area.
François Bayrou told Europe 1 that France is on track for a financial collapse, warning that the country faces an unprecedented crisis.
In the interview on 12 August 2026, Bayrou said next year the total income tax collected would not even cover the interest on France's debt, let alone the principal.
"Next year, the totality of income tax paid by the French will not suffice to pay the totality of the interest on the debt. Not the capital, simply the interest," he said.
He added that never in three quarters of a century has France been in the situation it finds itself in today.
Bayrou compared the current strain to the post‑World War II period, when France carried similar debt levels but could rely on growth and the option of devaluation, tools that are unavailable inside the euro.
"The financial crisis is inevitable," he warned.
France closed 2025 with a public deficit of €152.5 billion, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product, down from 5.8 percent in 2024, according to INSEE. Public debt stood at €3 460.5 billion, or 115.6 percent of GDP.
The Cour des comptes projects debt‑service costs of about €84 billion in 2027. France remains under the European Union excessive‑deficit procedure, and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has pledged to bring the deficit down to 4.1 percent of GDP that year.
If France were to default, the euro area could see higher borrowing costs, forcing the European Central Bank to consider emergency measures.
Neighbouring economies such as Germany and Italy are watching the situation closely, fearing a contagion effect that could destabilise markets across the continent.
Bayrou, who served at Matignon from 13 December 2024 to 10 September 2025, was removed after calling a confidence vote on his austerity‑oriented budget.
During his tenure he oversaw a deficit reduction of 0.7 percentage points and proposed further savings of €43.8 billion for 2026.
He ruled himself out of the 2027 presidential race in June 2026, publishing *Alerte sur la France qui vient* to outline the fiscal challenges.
Instead, he is urging a broad primary that would bring together Socialists and Gaullists to select a single candidate capable of blocking what he calls the extremes.
Bayrou wants a candidate named by February and has praised former European commissioner Thierry Breton for his experience and reformist credentials.
Early reactions from party leaders have largely been refusals.
He argues that the traditional first‑round filter of the Fifth Republic no longer works when parties he deems unacceptable, such as Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN) and Jean‑Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI), are treated as legitimate by large parts of the electorate.
"For many of us, in any case for me, neither LFI nor the RN are acceptable," Bayrou said, accusing the RN of targeting immigrants and LFI of targeting the rich.
Without order, he warned, France faces division, scapegoating and a loss of national resilience at a moment of war on Europe's doorstep and broader Western decline.
"We cannot take that risk, which is a mortal risk," he added.
He closed the interview with an aviation metaphor: "You do not hand a Boeing to someone who has never flown, including a glider," urging a leader with both experience and the capacity for renewal.
The presidential election is due in April 2027, roughly eight months away. Parliament returns in September to a budget that the government must steer through a National Assembly with no majority, in the middle of the campaign.