France, England, Spain or Argentina? How a $5.3 billion betting market is calling the FIFA World Cup 2026

After 100 matches and more than a month of captivating football, the FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its defining stage with only four teams left standing. It is a historic semi-final line-up in more ways than one. For the first time since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992, the top four-ranked teams in the world - France, Argentina, Spain and England - have all progressed to the last four of the World Cup.

It is also the first time since the 1990 edition that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, underlining the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.Much has been debated over the past month about who would emerge victorious from the first-ever 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament expanded to include a record 104 matches and 32 knockout fixtures.

There were surprise packages, giant-killings and emotional exits along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are exactly who the FIFA rankings suggest they should be.After six rounds of football - three group-stage matches, followed by the Round of 32, Round of 16 and quarter-finals - the world's four highest-ranked teams remain just two victories away from lifting the most coveted trophy in world football.The semi-final schedule promises two mouth-watering contests.

Spain face France in Arlington, Texas, on July 15, while defending champions Argentina take on England in Atlanta on July 16. The defeated teams will contest the third-place playoff in Miami on July 19, before the champions are crowned in the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20. Who are the favourites?

Betting markets offer a clueWith four footballing heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions among fans is simple: Who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. Two of the largest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have attracted enormous interest throughout the tournament, with a combined betting volume of more than $5.3 billion across various FIFA World Cup markets.

Around $4.2 billion has been wagered on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi across predictions ranging from tournament winner and Golden Boot to Golden Ball, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate prediction markets have also been created for each semi-final, offering insight into how fans expect the final four to unfold.According to Kalshi, France enter the semi-final against Spain as favourites, with a 59% probability of reaching the final compared to Spain's 41%.

More than $9 million has reportedly been staked on that particular outcome.The second semi-final is viewed as significantly closer. England hold a narrow edge over defending champions Argentina, with the Three Lions given a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina's 46%. Around $2.8 million has been wagered on that market alone.Polymarket reflects a similar trend.

The platform also favours a France vs England final, with considerably more money traded on the France-Spain semi-final ($7.6M) than on Argentina versus England ($1M).France emerge as clear title favouritesWhen it comes to the outright winner, the betting markets overwhelmingly favour France.Across the two prediction platforms, roughly 39% of bets have backed Didier Deschamps' side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus the clear favourites entering the final week.The battle behind them is considerably tighter.

England are the second favourites, attracting around 22% of predictions, only marginally ahead of Spain, who account for approximately 21%. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the market's view of Argentina. Despite being the defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least-fancied of the four remaining teams, with only around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend their title.A total of $4 billion has been wagered on the tournament winner category on Polymarket, while nearly $1.2 billion has been bet on Kalshi.Polymarket's projected final combinations also reflect France's status as favourites.

A France vs England final is considered the most likely outcome, carrying an estimated 35% probability. A repeat of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is viewed as the second-most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain vs England (21%) and Spain vs Argentina (20%).Golden Boot race remains finely balancedThe race for the Golden Boot has become one of the most fascinating subplots of the tournament.Heading into the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are tied at the top of the scoring charts with eight goals each, while Harry Kane remains in contention with six.The betting markets heavily favour Mbappe to finish as the tournament's leading scorer.

More than $55 million has reportedly been wagered on the Golden Boot market on Polymarket, with another $16 million on Kalshi.Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi trails with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane remains a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With every leading contender still alive in the tournament, the Golden Boot race is expected to go right down to the final.

Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races heat upThe race for the Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament's best player, has also attracted significant attention.Approximately $7 million has been wagered on Polymarket and $3.3 million on Kalshi in this category. Mbappe (56% on Playmarket & 61% on Kalshi) again leads the betting, while Messi (34% & 31%) remains his closest challenger.

England star Jude Bellingham (18% on both) is also firmly in contention after another outstanding campaign.For the Best Young Player award, Spain sensation Lamine Yamal has emerged as the overwhelming favourite. The teenager enjoys 42% support on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, ahead of France's Desire Doue, while Spain defender Pau Cubarsi completes the leading trio.The Golden Glove race is equally competitive.

France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting with around 37-38% support across both platforms, narrowly ahead of Spain's Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award has generated considerable interest among bettors. Norway, despite their elimination, remain overwhelming favourites to claim the honour, attracting around 90% of predictions across both betting platforms.Get the latest Sports News and Live updates.

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