Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices continue to fall? Check July 14, 2026 outlook
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices will continue to be influenced by developments on the US-Iran conflict front in the near-term, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:Spot gold came under renewed pressure at the beginning of the week as yet another skirmish between the US and Iran sent oil prices sharply up on Monday.
At the time of writing this article on Monday night, the yellow metal was trading with a hefty daily loss of 2.6% at $4013.In the week ending July 10, the metal closed with a weekly loss of 1.3% at $4121 as risk to oil supplies returned with a fresh round of armed conflict between Iran and the US.Geopolitics and oil:The US and Iran continue to engage in a series of attacks and counterattacks over the control and management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has claimed that the vital Strait of Hormuz has been closed, though the US disputes this claim.Iran’s IRGC warned Monday of further incidents should the US’s interference continue. Iran has warned vessels not to sail without its authorization.The US President Trump announced Monday on Truth Social the U.S. will again begin blocking ships coming in and out of Iran and will charge a rate of 20% on all cargo shipped to do the job of providing safety and security for ships transiting through the Strait.
As per Bloomberg estimates, a 20% charge would work out as about $32 million on a supertanker at current oil prices, which is far higher than the estimated $2 million tolls that would have been charged by Iran.Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed just six vessels passed through the strait on Sunday.Brent crude oil futures rose over 4% on supply concerns.Dollar Index and yields:At the time of writing this article, the Dollar Index at 101.11 was up 0.15% for the day.Two-year yields at 4.25% were up 0.95% as the yields hit the highest since February 2025, whereas ten-year yields at 4.60% reached the highest level since May 21 and were up 0.87%.Fedspeak:Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the Financial Stability Boar should encourage "flexibility" to ensure that oversight is appropriate for individual jurisdictions.
She warned against enforcing strict rules that are not suitable for a diverse group of countries, saying those efforts can erode the international watchdog’s effectiveness.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, expressing concerns over elevated prices of Core Inflation, said Monday policymakers may need to raise rates in the near term if underlying inflation continues to signal broad price pressures.Central Bank Watch:Fed Chair Warsh will testify at the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report on July 14 and July 15, respectively.China's central bank added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, extending its gold-buying streak to a 20th straight month.Central banks added 41 tonnes of gold to their official reserves in May as they continue to buy gold for strategic purposes including diversification, geopolitical risks and fiscal worries.
WGC reported that the National Bank of Poland has accumulated 82 tonnes during the first half of 2026 as the central bank took advantage of lower prices to build its reserves.ETF and COMEX inventory:As of July 10, total known global gold ETF holdings stand at 96.57 MOz, highest since July 1 but still down 2.38MOz YTD.
Gold holdings have fallen 4.35 MOz since the start of the Iran war on February 28.Registered COMEX inventory of gold at 14.76 MOz, lowest since October 4, 2024.CFTC positioning:In the week ending July 7, money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 1,963 net-long positions to 114,854, according to weekly CFTC data on futures and options.
Long-only positions rose 1,320 lots to 134,791 -- the highest in more than five months, while short-only positions rose 3,283 lots to 19,937 --the highest in four weeks.Upcoming data:Major US data on tap this week include June 27 weekly ADP weekly employment change (July 14), June CPI (July 14), June PPI (July 15) and June retail sales control group (July 16).
China will release its June trade balance (July 14), 2Q GDP (July 15), June retail sales, industrial production and property data (July 15) this week.Apart from data, traders will also focus on speeches by a host of Fed speakers for clues to the Fed's monetary policy path.Gold Price Outlook:Market participants will parse Warsh's testimony and US CPI data due tomorrow.
He will make his first appearance before the Congress as Federal Reserve Chairman.US CPI data is largely expected to show some relief. However, crude oil prices, Warsh's testimony and data will shape the FOMC's monetary policy to be announced on July 29.In the very short term, gold remains hostage to the headlines concerning US-Iran conflict.
On/off scenario in the situation is leading to huge volatility and choppiness.Warsh’s testimony and CPI data would add to volatility in the metal.Crude oil extending its rise on Iran headlines can take the metal down to $3930/$3850, while easing concerns may see the metal testing the resistance zone of $4095-$4120.
The yellow metal needs to overcome the strong resistance at $4200 to alleviate selling pressure(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)Get the latest business news and top stories.
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