Goldman says the Iran oil crisis is a preview of commodity shocks to come
Goldman Sachs says the era of commodity shocks will stick around even after the historic Iran war oil disruption fades into memory.
In a note on Sunday, Goldman analyst Samantha Dart and her team wrote that they see a market in which commodity demand is driven less by oil and more by metals critical to other booming sectors.
"From a potential increased reliance on EVs, to further investment into renewable power generation, both of which require further grid investment, to potentially larger defense spending, and growing competition to win the AI race, these themes are highly supportive of power, copper, lithium and aluminum demand."
The bank recently touted rising EV demand as a likely headwind for oil prices, highlighting surging global sales volume throughout 2026. In the more recent note, Dart and her team said they expect the trend to continue.
While such dynamics are bullish for commodities traders, they're also likely to cause fresh supply shocks. Surging demand for power and bottlenecks in key supply chains could lead to big swings in the prices, particularly in metals.
"Combined with the fact that power infrastructure can face bottlenecks and that metals refining remains highly geographically concentrated, this strong structural support to power and metals demand leaves these markets vulnerable to tightening shocks," Dart wrote.
For a long time, oil and gas had the reputation as the commodities responsible for driving inflation, as the price of energy seeps into the price of goods for both consumers and businesses.
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But Goldman sees the potential for a market in which commodities like electricity, precious metals like gold, and industrial metals such as copper and lithium, are more prone to sudden, sharp price spikes.
The note highlights the bull case for copper, which centers around strong demand from the AI data center buildout, EV production, and power grid needs. Those trends already pushed copper prices to record highs late in 2025, but the also pose new complications, with supply potentially unable to meet soaring demand.
All this points to an economy in which prices increase but growth slows down. Goldman sees diverse commodity exposure as the most reliable hedge, as predicting which industry will be disrupted by a new supply shock is difficult.
"Commodities, as the disrupted input, are then among the few assets to deliver positive real returns," Dart noted. "Because the source and timing of disruptions are inherently unpredictable, a broad commodity basket (ex. precious metals) offers the most robust protection."
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