Iran war woes cause jump in London-listed profit warnings

The rising energy costs and fragile consumer confidence caused by the Iran war have driven a jump in the number of profit warnings issued by London-listed firms. 

UK-listed companies issued 59 profit warnings in the first half of this year, up from 55 last year, with more than half of these being blamed on policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty, according to a report by consultancy EY. 

Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, two in five of all profit warnings have cited the impact of the Middle East conflict as a contributing factor. 

Housebuilders, retailers and leisure firms are among the sectors worst affected by the conflict, according to EY-Parthenon’s profit warnings report. 

London-listed housebuilding and construction firms posted eight profit warnings in the first half of this year, including six in the second quarter. 

This was the highest number since the start of the pandemic and the same as the first half of 2008, when the financial crisis rocked the UK’s housebuilding sector. 

Housebuilders have blamed rising building costs and a slowdown in demand among first-time buyers in recent months, as they slam the breaks on construction starts and landbuying.

FTSE 250-listed Vistry revealed a £30m first-half loss earlier this month. Last week, London-listed Crest Nicholson posted a £35m first-half shortfall, revealing it is still in crunch talks with its lenders.

UK-listed housebuilders have now issued 47 profit warnings since the start of 2020, almost double the 27 recorded in the previous 13 years combined.

Tim Vance, a restructuring partner at EY, said: “Many housebuilders entered 2026 expecting a gradual recovery as interest rate pressures eased and demand improved, but higher energy and input costs, weaker consumer confidence and fading expectations of further rate cuts have all weighed on the sector.”

The UK’s travel and leisure industry has also taken a hit from the Iran war, posting seven profit warnings – the most among any FTSE sector.

Travel firms and airlines were among the first to feel the effects of the war, with the likes of Easyjet warning over a hit from lower bookings and soaring jet fuel costs.

The pressure facing these firms has begun to threaten their existence as publicly listed companies. Easyjet is poised to exit the FTSE after facing an “opportunistic” swoop on its depressed share price. 

The Iran war is also weighing on the UK’s high street, according to EY’s experts. The conflict was named in each of the five profit warnings issued by London-listed retailers in the second quarter of this year.

Silvia Rindone, retail lead at EY, said: “The sector remains highly exposed to external shocks, and the impact of geopolitical disruption has compounded existing pressures on costs, supply chains and consumer confidence. 

“While headline sales have shown some resilience, this has often been driven by promotions rather than underlying demand strength.”