JD Vance is either dishonest or delusional in touting Iran deal

If the Islamabad memorandum is as strong as Vice President JD Vance claims, there should be no reason to portray it inaccurately. But in fact, there is much space between Vance’s rendition of the deal and its actual wording. 

In hindsight, it should be clear why Vance had earlier gone on a media tour praising the strength of the deal’s structure without releasing the actual text. On June 16 — just one day before the wording was made public, Vance, the deal’s chief architect, appeared on The Megyn Kelly Show, known for its opposition to the war, to explain the agreement’s structure. His goal was to justify the intervention, which, combined with an early, sound resolution, straddles both sides of the MAGA divide on it. But to accomplish that acrobatic feat, he was forced to vouch for wisdom to the resolution, which was largely imaginary.

“The financial spigot is already turned off … we can either unscrew the financial spigot, or we can keep it where it is right now … Assuming [Iran] complies with the terms of the agreement, there are all of these economic benefits that can flow to the Iranians … The way this deal is structured is that as they do more, they receive more. As they do less, they receive less.”

Unfortunately, this was a blatantly, materially false description of the deal. At the very outset of the deal, Iran gets tremendous economic benefits for the mere stroke of a pen. With no contingency, Iran gets immediate relief from sanctions and banking restrictions, including some unfreezing of assets. Indeed, the first tranche America is now unfreezing is $12 billion. Additionally, Iran can immediately sell sanctions-free oil without blockade, worth approximately $3 billion per month, or $6 billion over the deal’s 60 days. That sounds like $18 billion of an unscrewed financial spigot, without a trace of good behavior. Indeed, Hezbollah is attacking the Israeli military as we speak.

Contrary to Vance, there is nothing Iran is required to do during this period other than maintain the ceasefire and, within 30 days, complete the “demining” of the Strait of Hormuz. During this time, it will still gain access to additional unfrozen funds, which may mean as much as $124 billion. At this 60-day point, while Hezbollah is likely still on a tear, Iran will receive $300 billion in U.S.-brokered investment. 

In justification, he emphasized, “Iran’s ability to enrich uranium is completely destroyed … The Iranians will destroy their nuclear dust and then hand it over.” In fact, the memorandum states that all Iran has promised regarding enrichment is to keep its uranium and “downblend” on site. The lengthiest and most difficult stage of enrichment is to get to 20%, while enriching up to the present 60% is relatively quick; on to weapons grade 90% takes but weeks, one rationale for the war. Slow-walking this promised downblending means that after Iran rebuilds its missile program, increasing its intercontinental ballistic missile range, it can renege on any deal, and the world must deal with a richer, more powerful, and nuclear Iran that can send a nuclear bomb thousands of miles.

The vice president added that “they want to make a long-term commitment to the United States and to the Gulf Arab neighbors,” while ceasing “funding revolution in neighboring countries … [or] funding terrorist organizations.” Even these vague promises are nowhere in the memorandum.

He added, “We want to destroy their ability to … launch missiles and hit some of these [neighboring] energy facilities.” Contrary to Vance, President Donald Trump himself has admitted that Iran is not prevented from developing missiles.

Even if no deal is reached after 60 days, Vance claims, “the straits are still open.” However, this is not a contractual commitment on the part of Iran. The deal recognizes that even with a completed agreement, Iran can charge “fees” for passage.

If no deal, Vance insouciantly notes, “We can get on with our lives as a country.” In this comment, he betrays his true belief that the war was nothing but an unnecessary Israeli-induced bother, as per his favorite podcasters. He appears unaware that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed vengeance on Trump and the United States, which, after all, killed many of its leaders. Won’t such still be attempted, deal or not?

As we pierce the vice president’s inaccurate depiction of this “peace” deal, it becomes clear that Vance had not been negotiating Iran’s surrender, but ours, while falsely selling this abomination of an agreement as a victory.

Common sense requires that America exit this deal and do so now.

John D. O’Connor is a former federal prosecutor and the San Francisco attorney who represented W. Mark Felt during his revelation as Deep Throat in 2005. O’Connor is the author of the books Postgate: How the Washington Post Betrayed Deep Throat, Covered Up Watergate and Began Today’s Partisan Advocacy Journalism and The Mysteries of Watergate: What Really Happened. O’Connor and Mark Felt also collaborated on the 2006 book, A G-Man’s Life.