Labour has no right to win Makerfield

If Labour wins in Makerfield it will have been down to one man: Andy Burnham. In the most recent local elections every one of the individual council wards in Makerfield went Reform’s way. Nigel Farage’s party secured 50 per cent of the vote compared to Labour’s 25 per cent. Labour has never done so badly in Wigan. Whatever the capacities of one candidate, Reform should be winning it. The Makerfield constituency polls put Andy Burnham ahead by between 5-12 points.

If we don’t factor for Andy Burnham or tactical voting, our model has Reform winning this by 14 points. That’s what the demographics, local election results and nationwide polls imply right now. If Labour put up any other candidate, it wouldn’t even be close. But factor only for that apparent Burnham effect (as first demonstrated through the Survation for Datapraxis research) and you end up with Burnham winning the race by 2 points. Add tactical voting into the mix and that Burnham lead grows to 3 points, and factor for Restore Britain on top of that and Burnham’s lead grows to more than 5 points.

If we model it that way, the Burnham effect in Makerfield is clear. A surge for Labour of 16 points. Labour doing as well, if not better, than it did at the 2024 General Election.

Now here’s the honest uncertainty. The presence of Burnham on the ballot paper, the most-liked politician in British politics right now, may skew and exaggerate the enthusiasm for him at the expense of everyone else. To what degree voters will put their cross against the name or the party is yet to be seen.

Restore Britain is the greatest unknown right now. According to the Britain Predicts model, Restore’s impact wouldn’t be the difference between Burnham winning or losing. But it will expose the weakness to Nigel Farage’s right. A loss of 5 points or more to each Reform candidate across Great Britain today would mean Reform go from winning 300 seats in the Commons to 220 seats, with Labour the biggest beneficiary.