Land Affected By Wildfires In Europe Set To Almost Triple, Study Finds

A new analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns Europe's wildfire-affected area could almost triple by 2100, driven by climate change creating hotter, drier, and windier conditions. The study projects 39% more land burnt annually, with increases under even low warming scenarios, worsening significantly with higher temperatures, particularly in the Mediterranean. Researchers emphasize that emission reductions are crucial, alongside better prevention, early detection, and firefighting. Experts note current severe seasons already strain resources, fearing future extremes could overwhelm capabilities. Proactive measures like "close to nature" forest management and fire breaks are vital to mitigate this escalating threat.

The area affected by wildfires across Europe could almost triple by the end of the century, according to a new analysis.

The study led the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, estimates roughly 39% more land could be burnt every year across the continent by 2100, compared to the current average.

It argues climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe.

And it warns emission reduction are crucial to reducing the impacts of fires, along with improvements in prevention, early detection and firefighting.

PIK researcher and report lead author, Maik Billing said results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area, even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8 degrees Celsius, in a statement.

Billing said if emissions increase, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6 degrees Celsius, then fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe.

The report comes amid another severe wildfire season in Europe.

According to the European Forest Fire Information System around 550,000 hectares have burned across the EU as of 12 August, which is about two and a half times the average for this point in the year.

“The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources,” said PIK scientists and report co-author, Kirsten Thonicke, in a statement.

“With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size,” added Thonicke.

Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler said if Europe increases investment in wildfire management, then projections show it could make a significant difference, in a statement.

But Hickler added if fires become really extreme, the ability to contain them might break down and they do not know yet where this point is.

"The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past,” he said.

Claire Belcher, a professor of wildland fire and director of WildfireLabs at the University of Exeter said U.K wildfire risk has been highly concerning this summer, in a statement.

Professor Belcher added in early July, large parts of the country were on red wildfire alert for the second time ever, when the university’s fire behaviour prediction system - FireInSite - showed the highest risk of ignition we have seen on the system since it was built.

She said across the UK, July’s conditions also met the “30:30:30 rule” for wildfires, which means 30 degrees Celsius, 30% humidity, and 30km per-hour wind speeds.

And Sarah Carter, a research associate at the World Resource’s Institute’s Global Nature Watch, said Europe is now the fastest warming continent on Earth, with the southern half particularly experiencing devastating wildfires, in an interview.

Carter added more effective wildfire prevention could include a “close to nature” approach to forest management, by preserving historic water systems and avoiding cutting down most or all of trees at once in dry areas.

She told me that in some locations it is also important to create fire breaks, rewet areas, and avoid having monocultures of one single type of tree in the forests.

“Introducing herbivores can manage a forest in a more natural way, without the need for mechanical intervention and keep the balance of old trees and young trees,” Carter added.