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LeBron James next team odds: Warriors and Cavaliers surge as potential landing spots

NY Post Published Jun 30, 2026 Reviewed Jul 3, 2026 ✓ Reviewed by citations.press editors
Citation-ready fact
Users at Kalshi and Polymarket assigned LeBron James 67 percent odds to sign with the Golden State Warriors in free agency, up from 34 percent, after he informed the Lakers he would seek a new team.
67 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Golden State Warriors34 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Golden State Warriors
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Citation-ready fact
LeBron James’ odds to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers increased from 11 percent to 22 percent at Kalshi and from 8 percent to 18 percent at Polymarket following his free agency announcement.
22 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers11 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers18 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers8 % · LeBron James odds to sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers
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Draymond Green declined his $27 million player option for next season to allow the Golden State Warriors flexibility to pursue LeBron James in free agency, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
27000000 USD · Draymond Green’s player option
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James Harden recently declined his $42 million player option, and the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are working on a deal for him to return, according to NBA insider Chris Haynes.
42000000 USD · James Harden’s player option
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The LeBron James era with the Lakers in Los Angeles is over.

James and his agent Rich Paul informed the Lakers that he would seek to find a new team via free agency, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday.

The rumor mill was already running wild with potential landing spots for the NBA’s all-time leading scorer before the news, and one team is surging at prediction markets.

Users at Kalshi and Polymarket have the Golden State Warriors as the frontrunner to sign James in free agency. On both platforms, James’ odds to go to the Warriors jumped from 34 percent to 67 percent.

Charania had previously reported that the Warriors were suitors for James’ services after Draymond Green declined his $27 million player option for next season to allow the team flexibility to make a play for the 41-year-old in free agency.

It has also been reported that the Warriors would seek to trade for Anthony Davis to team up with James and Stephen Curry in Golden State.

The second team getting buzz is the Cavaliers. At Kalshi, the Cavaliers moved from an 11 percent chance to sign James to 22 percent after the latest news. The movement was more modest at Polymarket, going from eight percent to 18 percent.

NBA insider Chris Haynes reported that the Cavaliers are interested in having James finish his career with the team that drafted him and where he helped the franchise win its first NBA championship in 2016.

James Harden recently declined his $42 million player option, and the two teams are working on a deal for him to return, but the Cavaliers have limited space to fit both players without exceeding the second apron.

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.

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