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Martin Lewis issues grim warning over next energy bills price cap change

Express Published Jun 29, 2026 Reviewed Jul 2, 2026 ✓ Reviewed by citations.press editors
Citation-ready fact
The July energy price cap will rise by 13% due to the Middle East conflict beginning during the assessment period.
13 % · energy price cap
Martin Lewis, money saving expert
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Citation-ready fact
Some fixed energy deals are currently around 4% cheaper than today's energy price cap.
about 4 % · fixed energy deals relative to current price cap
Martin Lewis, money saving expert
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Citation-ready fact
Martin Lewis advised consumers to fix energy deals now because they are 4% below the April energy price cap.
4 % · fixed energy deals relative to April price cap
Martin Lewis, money saving expert
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Money saving expert, Martin Lewis, has issued a grim warning over the next energy bills price cap change. The expert took to social media to discuss what may happen to the October Price Cap following the energy Price Cap rising by 13% in July.

Martin Lewis explained to followers that it is “unlikely” that the October Price Cap will fall back to today’s level after the 13% July rise. Each Price Cap is calculated using average wholesale energy prices over a three-month assessment period. The expert said the July Cap will rise due to the Middle East conflict beginning during that period.

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Mr Lewis said: “The July Cap will rise 13% because the Mid-East conflict started during it, yet it was cushioned a little as the first few weeks of that period were pre-war.

He added that, although wholesale gas prices have begun to fall, the wholesale prices behind October are still much more expensive than those behind today's Price Cap.

As the October Price Cap is based on average wholesale prices over a three-month period, many of those higher prices have already been factored into the calculation, making a return to today's rates unlikely.

He continued: “The real question isn't whether the Oct Cap will drop back to April's rate, its about whether it will be any cheaper than the hugely increased July rate. My guess, it will be pretty similar.”

The expert advised Brits on how they can be taking action right now, urging those on standard variable tariffs to consider fixing now rather than waiting.

He pointed out that some fixed deals are currently around 4% cheaper than today's Price Cap and argued they could offer greater savings once the July increase comes into effect.

The money saving expert concluded: “This is why, as you can fix today at 4% below the April Cap, never mind what the Cap will jump to in July, I'm saying if you're on the Cap get off it. You can do a full comparison at cheapenergyclub.com to see your savings. Remember though they're compared to today's Cap not the higher July one.”

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