MLB Best Home Run Bets For July 3, 2026—Basallo And Rice
There is no sugarcoating it. The MLB best home run bets are in a funk. The losing streak reached eight suggestions with two more losing picks on Monday. The season’s record slinked to 13-50, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the days their home run bets were touted.
Fortunately, home run bets are long-shot props, and it doesn’t take many correct picks to generate a profit. To that point, the season’s profits for the home run props sit at a tidy $527 for anyone who has bet $100 on each of the suggested home run bets at the listed odds.
Eventually, the profit will dry up if the cold streak continues. A pair of home run bets stand out tonight as excellent options to stem the tide and bolster the profits, though.
Samuel Basallo is making the leap in his second crack at the Majors, hitting 12 home runs in 267 plate appearances in 2026. The 21-year-old catcher has drilled 11 of his 12 home runs in 206 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year and faces a righty tonight.
Basallo also has stellar batted-ball data. Among 253 qualified hitters in 2026, Basallo is tied for 65th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.5%), tied for 66th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.4%), 68th in hard-hit rate (45.5%), 44th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.7 mph), tied for 65th in maximum exit velocity (112.5 mph) and tied for 109th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (34.7%). Basallo also has a 12.3-degree launch angle, 20.5% line-drive rate, 36.4% fly-ball rate, 18.8% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 44.9% pull rate.
It’s debatable if Basallo’s matchup or park factors are dreamier, but both are mouthwatering. Brady Singer’s 2.21 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this season are the most among tonight’s projected probable starting pitchers. Singer has allowed 19 home runs in 16 starts, permitting at least one in 11 starts and multiple homers in six starts. The righty has also allowed 13 home runs to 219 left-handed batters faced and nine home runs to the 156 batters he’s faced at home in 2026.
And, again, the park factors are dreamy. Great American Ball Park’s 115 park factor for home runs is tied for the sixth-highest mark since 2025. Basallo can take advantage of his favorable matchup and hitting conditions and hit a home run tonight.
Ben Rice is building on a breakout sophomore season. After hitting 26 homers in 530 plate appearances in 2025, Rice has already smashed 23 home runs in 347 plate appearances in 2026. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has hit 17 of his 23 home runs in 229 plate appearances against righties, 14 of them in 151 plate appearances at home and nine in 100 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home.
Rice has excellent batted-ball data. Among 253 qualified batters this season, Rice is tied for 32nd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.9%), 32nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.1%), 65th in hard-hit rate (46.0%), 52nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.2 mph), tied for 102nd in maximum exit velocity (110.9 mph) and 37th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (38.2%). Rice also has a 14.5-degree launch angle, 17.7% line-drive rate, 40.0% fly-ball rate, 26.1% HR/FB and 48.2% pull rate.
Rice has a desirable matchup tonight. Rookie Mike Paredes has allowed 1.42 HR/9 in six appearances (four starts) for the Twins after allowing 1.48 HR/9 in 13 appearances (10 starts) in Double-A and Triple-A combined this season. Paredes has allowed two homers, a 46.4% fly-ball rate and a 15.4% HR/FB rate to 42 left-handed batters.
Paredes’s fly-ball tendencies against lefties aren’t ideal for keeping New York’s left-handed batters in the yard at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, which is tied for the third-highest park factor for homers (118) since 2025. Rice’s home run line is chalky across sportsbooks, but his likelihood of hitting a home run warrants highlighting his home run prop.