Moldova launches campaign to lure back emigrants as depopulation deepens — UnionPress

Chisinau's new incentive scheme aims to reverse a demographic decline that has seen one in four Moldovans living abroad.

Moldova has unveiled a nationwide campaign to encourage its diaspora to return home, a move prompted by a demographic collapse that now ranks the country among the world's fastest‑depopulating states.

The programme, announced by the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure on Monday, bundles tax breaks, housing subsidies and streamlined bureaucratic procedures for citizens who have left in search of work. Officials say the incentives are designed to make it financially viable for families to settle back in the country and to address acute shortages in health, education and public services.

At a press conference in Chisinau, Minister of Economy Andrei Popov explained that the state will grant a 30 % reduction in income tax for the first two years to returning workers, alongside a one‑off grant of up to €5,000 for home renovation or purchase. "We cannot afford to lose another generation of doctors, teachers and engineers," he said, pointing to the fact that the number of practising physicians has fallen below 1,200, far short of the World Health Organization's recommended ratio.

The demographic shock is stark. In 1991 Moldova's population stood at roughly 4.5 million; today it is estimated at just under 3 million. The United Nations projects a further decline of 10 % by 2030 if current trends continue. One in four Moldovans now lives abroad, many in Romania, Italy, Russia and the United Kingdom, forming a diaspora of about one million people, a voting bloc that has proved decisive in recent elections.

That diaspora influence was evident in the 2024 referendum that enshrined EU accession in the constitution and in the re‑election of President Maia Sandu. Analysts note that without the overseas vote the outcome might have been different, underscoring the political weight of emigrants.

For many Moldovans, leaving was not a choice but a necessity. The 1990s saw a wave of labour migration to Russia's construction sites, followed by a shift westward after the 1998 Russian financial crisis. When Romania joined the EU in 2007, its policy of granting citizenship to descendants of pre‑1940 Romanian nationals opened a new corridor for Moldovans, many of whom now hold dual passports.

Another surge arrived after 2014, when visa‑free travel to the Schengen area made Western Europe more accessible. That period also coincided with the infamous "one‑billion" banking scandal, in which oligarchs Ilan Shor and Vladimir Plahotniuc allegedly siphoned roughly $1 billion from the national banking system. The scandal eroded public trust and spurred a new generation of young people to seek opportunities abroad.

"University education became a commodity," recalls Vlada Ciobanu, a policy analyst at the Center for Policies and Reforms. "If you finished a bachelor's in Moldova, it was almost essential to do a master's abroad." She adds that many of her peers viewed a foreign degree as the only route to a decent career, given the chronic underfunding of local universities.

Social scientist Vitalie Sprînceană highlights the human cost of the exodus. In some rural villages, the traditional custom of eight men digging a grave can no longer be fulfilled because there are simply not enough adult males left. The shortage extends to gravediggers, doctors and teachers, creating a feedback loop that further discourages families from staying.

In response, the government's new scheme also targets the most vulnerable sectors. Health workers who return will receive priority placement in hospitals that are currently operating with skeletal staff, while teachers will benefit from a fast‑track certification process that recognises foreign qualifications.

Trade unions have welcomed the initiative but caution that incentives alone will not solve structural problems. Ionel Bălan, secretary‑general of the National Trade Union Confederation, warned that without a broader overhaul of wages and working conditions, the programme risks becoming a short‑term fix. "We need sustainable salaries, reliable pension reforms and genuine investment in public services," he said.

Employers, particularly in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, have expressed optimism. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Moldova notes that many factories are struggling to fill vacancies, especially for skilled technicians. "If the state can make the return financially attractive, we will see a boost in productivity and a reduction in reliance on temporary foreign labour," a spokesperson told us.

European institutions are watching the experiment closely. The European Commission's Directorate‑General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement has indicated that successful repatriation could strengthen Moldova's accession case, which is slated for formal negotiations by the end of 2023 and a possible treaty by 2030.

However, critics argue that the policy may inadvertently favour those already possessing assets abroad, leaving the poorest migrants behind. The tax relief applies only to documented income, and many informal workers in the diaspora could fall through the cracks.

To address this, the Ministry announced a parallel social‑inclusion fund of €20 million, aimed at providing micro‑grants for small‑scale entrepreneurs returning from abroad. The fund will prioritize projects in renewable energy, digital services and agro‑processing, sectors identified by the EU as key for Moldova's future competitiveness.

Housing remains a major hurdle. While the €5,000 grant helps with renovations, property prices in Chisinau have risen sharply in recent years, driven by speculative buying from overseas investors. The government plans to allocate a further €10 million to subsidise the construction of affordable apartments in the capital's outskirts, where infrastructure is being upgraded under an EU‑co‑financed urban development programme.

Public opinion appears cautiously hopeful. In a poll conducted by the independent think‑tank Insight Moldova, 62 % of respondents said they would consider returning if the financial incentives were sufficient, while 48 % cited concerns about corruption and the reliability of public services as deterrents.

For Sasha, a 27‑year‑old who grew up in the city's historic centre and now works part‑time in a local café, the campaign offers a glimmer of possibility. "I love Chisinau's mix of old wooden houses and modern concrete blocks," he says, gesturing to the city's eclectic architecture. "If I could earn a decent wage here and have a stable future, I would stay. Otherwise, I'll keep looking abroad."

The initiative arrives at a moment when Moldova's geopolitical situation remains precarious. The war in neighbouring Ukraine has repeatedly spilled over, with Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure causing fuel contamination in the Dniester River and occasional power outages in Moldova. These security concerns add another layer of complexity to the country's effort to retain its population.

Nevertheless, the government remains confident that a combination of fiscal incentives, targeted support for essential professions and EU‑aligned reforms will stem the tide of emigration. As President Sandu reiterated in a televised address, "Our future depends on the people who choose to build it here, not elsewhere."