Morocco vs. the Netherlands World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Monday’s Round of 32 clash
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The Netherlands and Morocco are two of the best teams in the World Cup.
Clockwork Oranje are ranked No. 7 in FIFA’s rankings, and they were the eighth-favorite to lift the trophy before the tournament at 20/1. The Dutch were semifinalists at the 2024 European Championships, and they took eventual champions Argentina to a penalty shootout in the quarterfinals at the 2022 World Cup.
According to Transfermarkt, the total value of the Dutch side is $750 million, the eighth-highest in the field.
The Atlas Lions are No. 6 in FIFA’s rankings, they just won the African Cup of Nations (sort of), and were a semifinalist at the 2022 World Cup. They were one of the trendiest dark horses at this year’s tournament as a 40/1 outsider.
Both teams went 2-1-0 (W-D-L) in the opening round despite being drawn into tough groups. All things being equal, these teams should be considered contenders to at least make a run to the semifinals. Only one problem, they are playing each other on Monday, meaning one of them is guaranteed to be eliminated in the Round of 32.
Such is life in these major international tournaments, where the luck of the draw matters almost as much as a team’s form.
The Netherlands is a -174 favorite to advance, and they are +120 favorites to win the match in 90 minutes.
Morocco’s shocking run to the semifinals in 2022 was built on defense. The Atlas Lions made themselves compact and waited for their opportunities. They had no problem scratching out wins after 90 minutes or in penalty shootouts.
This version of Morocco is different. Under Mohamed Ouahbi they’ve been more aggressive and willing to take risks on the ball. They’re not just a clinical counterattacking side anymore.
The Atlas Lions scored six times, created 6.1 expected goals (xG), and generated 10 big scoring chances in the group stage against Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti, which is an impressive haul for a team that was known for its prowess in low-event matches.
The trade off has been that Morocco has looked more vulnerable in their own zone than we’re used to seeing from them. Although they held firm against Brazil in the opener and kept a clean sheet against a tepid Scottish attack, the Atlas Lions were pegged back a couple of times by Haiti, who looked especially dangerous in transition.
The job will get a lot tougher against the Netherlands, who scored 10 goals in the group stage against Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia.
That said, the Dutch have ridden their luck a bit in this tournament. Brian Brobbey has been superb leading the line, but the Netherlands has generated just 5.2 expected goals, meaning they “overachieved” by five goals in the group stage. In a 5-1 win against Sweden, the Netherlands scored five goals on 10 shots and 2.6 expected goals.
By the underlying metrics, Morocco’s attack has actually been more menacing than the Dutch.
Additionally, the Netherlands have not been a picture of tidiness on defense themselves. Clockwork Oranje‘s lack of pace in the back was exposed by Japan’s ruthless counter-attacking, which is something that Morocco can exploit, too.
This one is pretty close to a coin flip, so there’s value on the underdog.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.