Open‑source study puts Russian war deaths at over 239,000 — The Debate
An analysis by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service confirms more than 239,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine.
Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service have verified by name the deaths of 239,350 Russian military personnel in the war in Ukraine.
The latest update, covering the period from the start of the invasion on 24 February 2022, was published on 14 August.
Among the identified dead are 87,749 volunteers, 26,416 recruited prisoners and 19,778 mobilised soldiers. The total also includes 7,533 officers, among them 15 generals.
Officers made up as much as 10 per cent of fatalities in the opening phase of the war, a share that fell to between 2 and 3 per cent by November 2024, according to Mediazona.
The count is compiled exclusively from publicly available sources such as obituaries, social‑media posts by relatives, local media reports, cemetery records and statements by regional authorities. Losses among the forces of the self‑proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are excluded.
The date of death is known in 221,500 cases, about 93 per cent of the confirmed total.
Mediazona and the BBC stress that the named list represents only a verified minimum, meaning the true number of Russian fatalities is likely higher. Researchers estimate the open‑source name count captures between 45 and 65 per cent of actual deaths.
The scale of Russian losses matters for NATO's eastern flank, where member states watch Moscow's ability to sustain its campaign.
Western intelligence agencies, including the GCHQ director Anne Keast‑Butler, have relied on similar open‑source methods, highlighting a broader shift toward civilian data in European security analysis.
The findings could shape EU sanctions policy, as the human cost adds pressure on policymakers in Brussels.
In a separate estimate published on 9 May 2026 using Russian probate‑registry data, Mediazona and Meduza calculated that approximately 352,000 Russian military personnel had been killed by the end of 2025.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports overall Russian personnel losses of about 1,467,320 as of 16 August 2026, though it does not break the figure down by category.
Kyiv gives far lower figures for its own losses. Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News on 31 July 2026 that Ukraine had lost about 50,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, after putting the number of dead at 55,000 in February.
Neither the Russian defence ministry nor the Kremlin has commented on the latest Mediazona‑BBC tally, and Moscow has not released comprehensive casualty figures since the early months of the war.