Russia's 'August curse' is coming true - and Putin can't stop it 

Ukraine has hit one of Russia’s biggest oil refineries and a warehouse owned by an e-commerce giant.

Footage shared by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky showed plumes of smoke rising from the strikes on the Novokuibyshevskyi oil refinery in Samara Oblast, south-east of Moscow.

The strike is part of a wider effort by the Ukrainian military to weaken Russian energy supplies and financial resources and comes amid the Russian superstition of a “black August”.

The consequences of the attack could be huge, as the refinery can produce 8.8 million metric tons of oil per year, and fuel shortages have already been reported across the country.

Samara governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev posted on Telegram that several people had been wounded in the strikes and that an industrial facility had been struck, but he did not name the facility.

Strikes also targeted Ozon warehouses over 600 miles behind the front line. The company is Russia’s second-largest online retailer and comes after a series of attacks on Wildberries sites across the country.

In a post on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Over the past 24 hours, our forces struck the Novokuybyshevsk refinery – 1,000 kilometers from the front line – depriving the Russian war machine of millions of dollars in export revenues. We also hit a logistics hub in the Samara region and targets in the Black Sea.

“Previous strikes have yielded confirmed results: at the Saky airfield, a Su-24M aircraft and four pieces of airfield equipment were destroyed, while in the Bryansk region, we took out drone-control relay stations used by the occupiers to guide strike UAVs toward peaceful Ukrainian cities and villages.”

Ukrainian long-range sanctions continue to limit Russia’s military and economic potential, ensuring the aggressor state feels the impact of the war more directly.

Over the past 24 hours, our forces struck the Novokuybyshevsk refinery—1,000 kilometers from the front… pic.twitter.com/Co2J4WGvvi

While Ukrainian strikes have rained down on Russia for months, many Russians believe August to be the worst of all.

“August is a cursed month for our country,” declared the far-right, pro-Kremlin nationalist Tsargrad TV, warning Russians to prepare to be tested by enemies. “Ukraine and its Western handlers are planning another large-scale atrocity for the last month of summer.”

Another outlet cited mystical tradition, esotericism and astrology to declare August “not just a month but a temporal portal where the boundaries between worlds are thinned” and the “world enters a phase of chaos”.

The Russian superstition of “black August”, a time when bad news is more frequent, began with the attempted coup by hardline communists in 1991. A succession of disasters followed, including plane crashes, financial collapses, a deadly submarine accident and the start of wars with Georgia and Chechnya.

The attacks come after Russian strikes on Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih. Zelensky branded it an “act of barbarism”, with local officials saying at least 23 children were among those wounded in the daytime strike.

Scott Lucas, a Journalist and Professor at University College Dublin’s Clinton Institute told The i Paper, Russia’s last chance to end the war is this winter, or they face more than a Black August.

With Ukraine’s drone technology developing to allow them to carry attacks out within Russia, only Russia’s ballistic missiles can stop Ukraine.

Lucas said that “the best defence is a good offence” and Ukraine’s targeting of sites connected to Russia’s ballistic missiles is a good strategy.

He added that Russia is “almost certainly not” coming back to the table for peace talks, as the Kremlin has restated their maximum goals. This includes the surrender of more Ukrainian territory especially in the east, limits on military numbers and Ukrainian foreign policy.

“The only way Russia comes to the table, is if they think they have manipulated the Americans to come to their position,” Lucas added.

“Russia’s economy has serious issues. Fuel rationing in more than 50 regions, long petrol queues and rationing in Moscow.

“Do you have effective sanctions against Russia this winter? Pressure could be put on the Kremlin if sanctions were high and if Ukraine attack this winter.”

One possible method for Ukraine to gain military advantage over Russia is the use of patriot missiles, with Lucas suggesting that with America having used up their patriot systems it was time for Europe to step up.

Zelensky posted on his X account earlier today confirming that he had spoken to President Emmanuel Macron of France, confirming that France would accelerate their latest delivery of missiles and equipment to Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials said at least two drones hit Kryvyi Rih’s largest shopping centre on Friday.

In a Telegram post, Zelensky said the strike happened in “two waves”, with the second targeting emergency workers at the scene.

Footage posted online in the wake of the attack appeared to confirm the claim, with video showing a drone slam into the already burning shopping centre.

Regional governor Oleksandr Hanzha posted a photo of the strike’s aftermath showing black smoke pouring from what appeared to be an industrial building.

At least 16 people died in the attack and more than 130 were injured.

“There are 29 people in serious condition, including five children,” Hanzha said.

In a later update on Saturday, he added nine people, including two children, were missing, fuelling fears the death toll could rise further.

Attacks were also recorded on Kyiv in the week with the city’s mayor claiming critical infrastructure was “purposefully attacked”.

At least 17 people were killed as blocks of flats and warehouses were struck.

The shopping centre strike is the latest Russian attack, which likely violated international law.

Legal experts say so-called “double tap” strikes contravene Geneva Convention statutes prohibiting the targeting of civilians, the wounded, those no longer able to continue fighting, and emergency service workers.

Despite this, evidence suggests Russia has repeatedly used the tactic in Ukraine, in addition to apparently deliberate attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure.

While not technically a breach of the Geneva Convention, Russia has also been credibly accused of employing cluster bombs in its attacks, weapons that were outlawed under a 2010 agreement signed by the UK, US and many European nations.

In addition to condemnation for its military tactics, Russia has also faced global outrage over the mass murder of civilians and prisoners of war in Bucha, the torture of captured soldiers and the forced removal of Ukrainian children.