Russian forces inch forward in Kostyantynivka as Ukraine struggles to hold the city — UnionPress

Intense urban fighting around Kostyantynivka shows Russian troops gaining ground while Ukrainian commanders downplay the situation, raising concerns for civilians and the wider front.

Kostyantynivka, a city of roughly 60,000 in the Donbas, is becoming the latest flashpoint in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Recent eyewitness reports, satellite imagery and statements from both sides indicate that Russian infantry are slowly but steadily infiltrating the urban centre, while Ukrainian officials continue to portray the situation as under control.

According to a Ukrainian soldier who signs his messages as "Officer", Kostyantynivka and nearby Dobropillia form the epicentre of combat on the entire front. He says Russian troops are moving house‑by‑house, creating micro‑encirclements that squeeze out Ukrainian defenders. The description matches a series of testimonies collected by the open‑source outlet Playfra, which published a two‑week‑old message from a frontline soldier describing the city as a "lost city". That soldier wrote that Russian forces now control the central, western and northern districts, leaving only a small pocket in the south that can still be supplied by drones.

Ukrainian commander Brigadier General Olexander Bakulin, head of the 19th Corps tasked with defending the city, told the BBC that "the situation remains under control" and that "the enemy has had no success". His deputy, Yuriy Madyar, acknowledged that Russian troops had entered some buildings but insisted that Ukrainian forces knew the locations of the intruders and were destroying them. "They are running away, they are demoralised, but there are still some who try to return fire," Madyar wrote on the Ukrainian social‑media platform NV. "South of Kostyantynivka there are now only a minimum number of enemy troops, we have cleared them out there. Now we are starting a sort of offensive aimed at destroying the enemy troops directly in Kostyantynivka, in its central and western parts."

BBC reporters embedded with Ukrainian units on the ground heard a very different picture. One drone operator told the journalist that "Russian forces are getting into areas behind our backs, and in urban conditions it is extremely difficult to push them out". Another soldier said Russian infantry were moving only a few hundred metres a day, sometimes "crawling into the next building". The slow pace, he argued, was a deliberate tactic: by advancing in tiny increments the Russians could avoid exposing large formations to Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery.

Analyst Bohdan Myroshnykov noted that the heaviest fighting now takes place in the city centre and western districts, while the southern sector is largely cut off from regular supply lines. He added that Ukrainian units west of Chasiv Yar are still holding a line that prevents a full Russian breakthrough from the east, but that line is under constant pressure.

Multiple sources reported that Russian soldiers are infiltrating in groups of one or two, a tactic that makes it hard for Ukrainian drone pilots to track every movement. Official Ukrainian estimates put the number of Russian combatants inside the city at around 130, but several observers suspect the figure is higher, given the steady flow of reinforcements reported by local contacts.

Ukrainian drone operators, who are tasked with both reconnaissance and targeting, say they are increasingly forced to focus on protecting their own crews from Russian glide‑bombs and artillery. "Since we devote little time to finding and targeting enemy pilots, they can operate freely, reveal our positions and we are forced to withdraw. That is how the front line moves," one operator told the BBC. The implication is clear: the more the city becomes a maze of ruined buildings, the harder it is for Ukrainian forces to maintain a coherent defensive line.

Both Ukrainian and Russian analysts agree that Kostyantynivka is on a trajectory toward capture. The Russian side, represented by two unnamed majors, described the assault as approaching a "logical conclusion". Ukrainian observers on DeepState UA warned that the city could fall by the end of the summer if the current tempo continues.

The loss of Kostyantynivka would echo the earlier fall of Pokrovsk in autumn 2023, when Russian infantry used the same incremental, house‑by‑house approach to wear down Ukrainian defences. Myroshnykov warned that "time and the amount of meat the enemy is sending will unfortunately finish the job". In other words, the sheer volume of Russian infantry, even at high casualty cost, may eventually overwhelm the Ukrainian position.

From a strategic perspective, the city sits on a corridor that could allow Russian forces to swing south toward Kramatorsk, a major industrial hub. Satellite images released by Playfra on 24 June showed intense shelling of the road linking Kostyantynivka to Druzhkivka and Oleksiievo‑Druzhkivka, suggesting that Russian artillery is already preparing to secure supply routes for a further push.

While the fighting in Kostyantynivka intensifies, Ukraine continues a sustained campaign against Russian oil‑and‑gas infrastructure. Data compiled by the open‑source platform Oko Hora shows that in May, 33 out of 49 recorded attacks (about 67 %) targeted refineries or related facilities, the highest proportion since the war began.

Analyst Michael Bohnert of the RAND Corporation compared the autumn 2025 campaign with the current summer offensive. In the autumn, Ukrainian drones struck refineries every two to three days, often using relatively small warheads. Damage was repaired within one to two weeks, and production recovered quickly. By contrast, the summer sees attacks almost daily, with heavier warheads that damage high‑pressure piping and specialised equipment that cannot be sourced locally. "If a refinery is hit once every one and a half days and repairs take an average of four weeks, Russia's fuel production capacity could be reduced by roughly 45 %," Bohnert wrote on X.

The most striking example came last week when the Kapotnya refinery near Moscow, which supplies half of the capital's gasoline, was hit by up to ten drones in a single raid. Russian air‑defence mistakenly struck one of its own storage tanks, causing a spectacular roof collapse that was widely shared on social media. Reuters later reported that the refinery would remain offline until at least 2027, a setback that could push Russian gasoline prices to levels not seen in recent years.

Higher fuel prices in Russia have already begun to affect ordinary citizens. German economist Janis Kluge posted a graph of the A‑92 gasoline index on 24 June, showing a sharp upward spike. The rise in domestic fuel costs could have knock‑on effects for Russian industry, potentially limiting the Kremlin's ability to sustain its war machine without resorting to further price controls or subsidies that would burden the population.

European energy markets have been watching the Russian refinery campaign closely. A sustained reduction in Russian fuel output could tighten global oil supplies, pushing prices higher for European consumers already grappling with inflation. At the same time, the Kremlin's attempts to showcase resilience, for example by using smoke screens on the Crimean bridge to obscure drone attacks, may be aimed at reassuring domestic audiences and foreign partners that Russian logistics remain functional.

For EU policymakers, the dual pressure of a deteriorating front line in eastern Ukraine and a crippled Russian energy sector presents a dilemma. On the one hand, a weakened Russian oil industry could reduce the Kremlin's fiscal capacity to fund the war. On the other, higher global oil prices risk inflaming energy‑poverty across the continent, especially in countries still dependent on Russian imports.

Beyond the military calculations, the battle for Kostyantynivka is exacting a heavy toll on civilians. The city's infrastructure is crumbling under constant artillery fire, and the limited drone‑based supply drops are being intercepted by Russian forces. Residents have reported shortages of water, electricity and medical supplies, while the constant threat of shelling forces many to stay underground.

In occupied Crimea, a related but distinct crisis is unfolding. Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics have forced some residents to revert to horse‑drawn transport, a stark visual reminder of the war's reach into everyday life. Videos circulating on social media show people riding horses through the peninsula's streets, a scene that would have seemed absurd a few months ago.

These images have been used by Russian propaganda to dramatise the alleged collapse of European energy supplies, recalling a 2023 campaign that warned Europe would freeze without Russian gas. The irony, as many observers note, is that the very shortages being highlighted are largely the result of Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure.

Both sides continue to adapt their drone tactics. Ukraine has introduced a new method of launching FPV (first‑person view) drones using a ground robot protected by a cage, allowing operators to release multiple drones from a safe distance. This innovation extends the time drones can loiter over targets, increasing the pressure on Russian ground forces.

Russia, meanwhile, has begun employing smoke screens over the Crimean bridge to obscure the approach paths of Ukrainian drones. While the effectiveness of the tactic is still unclear, it signals a growing awareness of the drone threat at the highest levels of Russian command.

Turkish‑made Bayraktar TB2 drones have also re‑entered the Black Sea theatre, destroying three Russian naval kamikaze drones in a single engagement on 24 June. The success reflects a broader trend: Ukrainian forces have shot down 44 Russian air‑defence systems in June, matching the high numbers recorded in May and representing the most intense anti‑air‑defence campaign in two years.

According to the Oryx open‑source project, which tracks equipment losses through photographic evidence, Russia lost 23,668 pieces of heavy equipment by 8 June, of which 18,652 were destroyed in combat. Ukrainian forces, by contrast, reported 11,564 losses, including 1,433 tanks. The disparity underscores the heavy price Russia is paying for its incremental urban advances.

Nevertheless, the Russian strategy appears to rely on sheer numbers. Even if each infantry squad suffers higher casualties, the Kremlin can replenish its ranks from a larger mobilisation pool, whereas Ukraine faces a more limited pool of trained personnel and relies heavily on volunteer units and foreign volunteers.

Looking forward, the battle for Kostyantynivka will likely continue to be a barometer for the wider front. If Russian forces succeed in fully encircling the city, they could open a corridor toward Kramatorsk, threatening one of Ukraine's industrial heartlands. Conversely, a successful Ukrainian counter‑offensive that stabilises the line could buy time for Kyiv to reinforce other vulnerable sectors, such as the southern approaches to Kharkiv.

For European observers, the unfolding situation offers a stark reminder that urban warfare favours the attacker when the defender cannot maintain continuous aerial surveillance and resupply. The reliance on drones, while innovative, has limits in dense built‑up areas where enemy forces can hide among rubble and trees.

In the broader context, the simultaneous pressure on Russian refineries and the grinding urban battle in Kostyantynivka illustrate the multi‑front nature of the conflict. Ukraine is attempting to degrade Russia's war‑fighting capacity through strategic strikes on energy infrastructure while also fighting for every kilometre of ground in the Donbas.

As the war drags into its third year, the human cost on both sides continues to rise. For the residents of Kostyantynivka, the prospect of a protracted siege means dwindling supplies, constant danger, and an uncertain future. For European policymakers, the challenge remains to support Ukraine's defence without allowing the conflict to spill over into broader economic instability across the continent.