Tories offered chance to claw back support as party defends key seats in by-election battles

Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party face a chance to claw back support in a wave a by-election battles across Britain this week, as the party defends key seats in stronghold regions.

The party has suffered at the hands of a "divided right" in recent months, with the popularity of Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain skewering support and testing the two-party system.

The Conservatives will be defending vacated council seats in Cheshire, Scotland, Dorset and Wales – facing fierce opposition from the right, in addition to a rebounded Labour under the imminent leadership of Andy Burnham.

The widespread contests come as the Tories have begun to climb in the public opinion polls, with voter intentions in favour of Mrs Badenoch's party up to 20 per cent this week, according to YouGov – which is in line with Labour and just four points behind Reform.

A heated by-election is due to unfold on Aberdeenshire Council – called after the sudden passing of Councillor George Hall, who died at the age of 65.

Mr Hall was lauded as having faithfully supported his constituency, fulfilling his role even while fighting "a long hard battle with serious illness with great strength and dignity".

The Scottish Conservatives are defending the seat and occupy a majority on Aberdeenshire Council, with 20 of the 69 council seats.

Ross Thomson, previously a Tory MP in Aberdeen South, is standing as an independent after defecting to Reform last year.

The Peterhead South & Cruden area is represented by Seamus Logan of the Scottish National Party, who was elected in 2024 to serve the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency.

Bolton Council will see a by-election contest, called after the resignation of Ryan Bamforth, who represented Horwich North as a member of the Horwich and Blackrod First Independents

Speaking to The Bolton News after stepping down, he said: “I feel like a gigantic weight has been taken off my shoulders and I can finally be me again."

The hyper-local group are defending the seat, facing tough competition from Labour, who occupy a majority on Bolton Council.

The Horwich area falls within the Bolton West parliamentary constituency and is represented by Labour MP Phil Brickell.

Falling within Greater Manchester, the area is a Labour stronghold with ties to Britain's likely next prime minister, Andy Burnham – the then-mayor of Greater Manchester and current Makerfield MP.

A by-election is set to take place on Cheshire West & Chester Council, called after Conservative councillor Phil Rimmer resigned in May.

The Conservatives are defending the seat against a fierce Labour, who occupy a majority on the council with 35 council seats - almost half of representatives.

The Conservative MP for the Weaver & Cuddington ward area is Aphra Brandreth, who won her seat to represent the Chester South and Eddisbury constituency in the 2024 general election.

The ex-leader of Cotswold Council, who was formerly one of the youngest councillors in England, resigned after 15 years to open the by-election for St Michael's ward.

Liberal Democrat councillor Joe Harris described his time as a local politician as "an absolute honour".

The Lib Dem-controlled council are defending the seat, with little threat of opposition given a mere 12 seats on the council are occupied by other parties.

The Lib Dems are also represented in Parliament, with Dr Roz Savage serving the South Cotswolds constituency since 2024, which includes the St Michael's ward in Cirencester.

This ward on Dorset Council faces a by-election after the death of long-standing and popular Conservative councillor Barry Goringe in April.

The Liberal Democrats have a majority on the council, but it is the Tories who are defending the seat as the second largest party presence in the local authority.

One of the candidates is Mr Goringe's wife Margaret, who is "determined to continue working to protect the character of our area and improve our local services" in her husband's name.

In Westminster, the St Leonards and St Ives area is represented by Sir Christopher Chope, who has served as Christchurch's MP since 1997.

Joe Harris, ex-leader of Cotswold Council, also held the post for Cirencester Park on Gloucestershire Council, and resigned from both posts after 15 years to open two by-elections.

Lib Dem councillor Joe Harris described his time as a local politician "an absolute honour".

The Liberal Democrat controlled council are defending the seat, with little threat of opposition beyond Reform UK, who hold ten seats on the council since the May elections.

The Lib Dem's are also represented in Parliament, with Dr Roz Savage serving the South Cotswolds constituency since 2024, which includes Cirencester.

This by-election was called after the death of Labour councillor David Gair, described as "a highly respected member of the council" following his election in 2023.

Labour are defending the seat on the dominant Conservative council, with just three Labour seats compared to the 15 held by Tory members.

The Conservatives also have a steak in Parliament, with Lutterworth and its surrounding areas represented by the MP for the South Leicestershire constituency, Alberto Costa.

Powys Council is holding three by-elections this week, with this contest called after long-time Plaid Cymru councillor Elwyn Vaughan was elected to the Senedd.

He won the Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency in the Welsh Parliament, marking a major political milestone by ending nearly 200 years of continuous Tory or Liberal representation in the area.

The Liberal Democrats hold the most seats on Powys Council; however, the party representation ranges fairly equally across the Powys Independents, Conservatives and Labour, with Plaid Cymru holding just three seats.

Steve Witherden has served as the Labour MS for Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr since 2024, which covers the Glanwymyn region.

A second by-election in Powys was called after Claire Johnson-Wood, a Reform UK councillor, vacated her seat in May following her successful election to the Senedd for the Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency.

The Liberal Democrats hold the most seats on Powys Council, with Reform scarcely represented by only two elected councillors.

The Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency, which includes the village of Llanyre with Nantmel, is represented by James Evans of Reform UK, Sioned Williams of Plaid Cymru, Iain McIntosh of Reform UK, Rebeca Phillips of Plaid Cymru, Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats, and David Terence Mills of Reform UK.

A third by-election in Powys was called after former leader of the Reform group Iain McIntosh exchanged his role for that of a member of the Senedd for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency.

The former leader of Telford and Wrekin Council, Shaun Davies, represented the ward for the last 15 years but stepped down from that role when he stood in the 2024 general election and became Labour MP for Telford.

He said he was advised to give up his council seat when he was appointed a Government whip last week, triggering the by-election.

The council is dominated by Labour, who hold 37 of the 54 seats.

As the Labour MP for Telford, Shaun Davies maintains a presence in the region despite his resignation from the council, with his former ward falling under his current constituency.

Similar to members in Powys, Jason O’Connell had to resign from his post on Torfaen Council after he was elected to the Senedd at May’s Welsh election to represent the Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr constituency as a Reform MS.

Another Labour-dominated council, Torfaen, has 28 Labour councillors compared to just three from Reform.

Llantarnam is situated within the multi-member Senedd constituency of Sir Fynwy Torfaen, represented by six Members of the Senedd including Lynne Neagle of Labour, Matthew Jones of Plaid Cymru, Peter Fox of the Conservatives, Stephen Senior of Reform UK, Donna Cushing of Plaid Cymru, and Laura Jones of the Conservatives.