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UK inflation fell to 3.4% in May on lower food prices

BBC Published Jun 15, 2010 Reviewed Jul 1, 2026 ✓ Reviewed by citations.press editors
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UK CPI fell to 3.4% in May, down from 3.7% in April.
3.4 % · CPI3.7 % · CPI
Office for National Statistics, statistical agency
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UK RPI fell to 5.1% in May, down from 5.4% in April.
5.1 % · RPI5.4 % · RPI
Office for National Statistics, statistical agency
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Howard Archer said that the CPI retreat would provide relief to the Bank of England and support its case that inflation will decline in the coming months.
Howard Archer, analyst at IHS Global Insight
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Howard Archer believes the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% into 2011.
0.5 % · interest rates
Howard Archer, analyst at IHS Global Insight
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The CPI fall was larger than the 3.5% forecast by analysts.
3.5 % · CPI forecast
, forecast
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Howard Archer expects inflation to fall below the 2% target by early 2011, assuming no VAT increase.
2 % · inflation target
Howard Archer, analyst at IHS Global Insight
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UK inflation fell faster than expected in May, helped by lower food prices and slower rises in petrol and alcohol.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the government's preferred measure, dropped to 3.4% from 3.7% in April, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The fall was bigger than the 3.5% analysts' forecast, and could mean that April's 17-month high marks a peak.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI), a measure widely used in pay talks, fell to 5.1% in May from 5.4%, the ONS said.

Howard Archer, an analyst at IHS Global Insight, said: "May's retreat in CPI will be of some relief to the Bank of England and boosts its case that inflation will head down significantly over the coming months."

He expects inflation to be under the 2% target by early-2011 barring any increase in VAT in next week's emergency budget.

The CPI fall also eases pressure on the need to raise interest rates.

"It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is more likely than not to keep interest rates down at 0.50% into 2011 as recovery remains bumpy and gradual with major fiscal tightening and the Eurozone debt crisis posing serious threats to growth prospects," Mr Archer said.

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