Ukrainian drone strikes cripple Russian oil refining, sparking fuel shortage — UnionPress
A wave of Ukrainian attacks on key Russian refineries has cut output to its lowest level in more than two decades, threatening domestic fuel supplies and the Russian budget.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have pushed the country's refining capacity back to levels not seen since the early 2000s, creating a domestic fuel crunch that now affects an estimated 50 million people, according to a recent Financial Times analysis.
The latest attack, carried out on Tuesday morning, hit the Gazprom Neftekhim refinery in Salavat, Bashkortostan, some 1,300 kilometres from the front line. The blast ignited a fire that engulfed one of the plant's primary processing units, halting production at a facility that in 2024 processed 7.2 million tonnes of crude, roughly 2.7 % of Russia's total refining capacity.
Data from EA Analytics show that over the past month Russian refineries have processed an average of 3.91 million barrels a day, the lowest daily throughput since March 2005. Compared with the same period last year, that represents a drop of 1.4 million barrels a day. The decline is not limited to a single plant; the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai also suffered a fire, while the Syzran refinery owned by Rosneft saw its primary AVT‑5 processing unit, capable of handling 7,100 tonnes a day, knocked offline after a precision strike.
According to Reuters and The Insider, the damage to Syzran's AVT‑5 unit will not be repaired until the end of the month, further constraining supply. The cumulative effect of these attacks has been a daily shortfall of up to 45,000 tonnes of petrol, prompting regional authorities to impose sales restrictions in 88 of Russia's 89 regions. Only the remote Far‑East oblast of Chukotka has escaped the curbs.
The fuel shortage is already being felt on the ground. In Crimea, which has been cut off from mainland supply lines, some districts have gone without electricity for nearly two weeks. Diesel prices for road‑transport firms have surged by 75.8 % and the cost of bitumen, essential for road resurfacing, has risen by 45.5 %. With diesel exports now restricted and petrol imports rising, the quality of fuel on the market has deteriorated, leading to increased engine wear and higher maintenance costs for both private motorists and commercial fleets.
Road freight accounts for roughly 70 % of Russia's cargo transport, so the shortage is expected to ripple through food prices, construction costs and the broader cost of living. Analysts warn that the rise in transport costs will translate into higher consumer prices for basic goods, compounding the economic strain already caused by sanctions and a weakening ruble.
Beyond the immediate supply issues, the fuel crisis is eroding the state's fiscal position. The former energy minister disclosed that the budget deficit for the first five months of the year exceeded six trillion roubles, a figure that rose to almost eight trillion roubles by 26 June, well above the planned five‑trillion‑rouble deficit. The shortfall is driven by falling oil revenues, a decline in refining margins, and the need to subsidise fuel prices for the domestic market.
Compounding the fiscal pressure, global oil prices have slipped following a tentative truce between the United States and Iran, undermining the Kremlin's ability to offset the loss of refining income with higher export earnings. State economists now project annual GDP growth of merely 0.1 %, a stark contrast to the 1.3 % growth forecast made before the drone campaign intensified.
The Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries is part of a broader strategy to weaken Moscow's war‑fighting capacity by targeting the logistical backbone that fuels its armed forces. By disrupting fuel supplies, Kyiv aims to limit the Russian military's ability to conduct sustained operations, especially in the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas.
Ukrainian officials have highlighted the success of the drone strikes, noting that they have now hit every major refinery in the European part of the Russian Federation and, for the first time, the large Omsk refinery in Siberia, a facility more than 2,500 km from the front line. The Polish think‑tank OSW describes the situation as the most serious fuel crisis in the Russian Federation's history.
Ukrainian military analysts warn that if the current tempo of attacks continues, repair works will be repeatedly delayed, especially because many of the replacement components are sourced from Western manufacturers now barred from exporting to Russia. This could lock Russia into a prolonged period of fuel scarcity.
Inside Russia, the crisis is eroding public confidence in President Vladimir Putin. Opinion polls cited by the OSW show the lowest level of support for the president in five years. Economist Vladimir Milov, speaking to The Insider, described the situation as a "black swan", an unexpected shock with far‑reaching consequences, and warned that Russia may soon become a net importer of petrol, a status it has never held since the Soviet era.
Search trends on Yandex reveal a surge in queries such as "how to make your own petrol," reflecting the desperation of ordinary citizens faced with long queues at fuel stations and the prospect of rationing.
In response, the Kremlin has attempted to reframe the narrative, with state‑run outlet The Bell reporting that fuel prices are not "rising" but merely "changing." However, the language shift has done little to allay the concerns of consumers who now face higher transport costs and the risk of fuel‑related blackouts.
While the fuel attacks are reshaping Russia's domestic economy, the war's aerial dimension is also evolving. At a recent summit in Paris, a coalition of ten countries, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Ukraine, announced a joint initiative to develop a cheaper alternative to the Patriot air‑defence system, known as the Freya programme.
The Freya system, based on Ukraine's FP‑7.x missile, aims to fill the gap left by dwindling supplies of PAC‑2 GEM‑T munitions, the most effective interceptors for Russian ballistic missiles. The programme brings together defence firms such as Diehl (Germany), Thales (France), HENSOLDT (Germany), Saab (Sweden), Kongsberg (Norway), Leonardo (Italy), MBDA (France/UK/Italy), Eurosam (France), Safran (France) and Destinus (UK). The first operational units could be fielded as early as this year, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
For Ukraine, a reliable air‑defence shield is essential to protect civilian infrastructure and to prevent further civilian casualties. UN data for June recorded 265 civilian deaths and 1,816 injuries from Russian attacks, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the invasion.
Analysts at OSW caution that the fuel crisis will deepen unless Ukraine can sustain its drone campaign. The coalition's ability to supply Ukraine with air‑defence systems may also influence the intensity of Russian strikes, as the Kremlin appears to rely increasingly on ballistic missiles to compensate for the loss of air superiority.
For European observers, the situation underscores the interconnectedness of energy security, military conflict and domestic stability. A prolonged Russian fuel shortage could push Moscow to seek alternative markets for its crude, potentially altering global oil flows and affecting European energy prices. At the same time, the success of Ukrainian drone tactics may encourage other nations to invest in similar low‑cost, high‑impact weapons, reshaping the future of asymmetric warfare.
In the short term, Russian households will continue to feel the pinch of higher fuel costs, while the Kremlin grapples with a widening budget deficit and a deteriorating public image. For Europe, the unfolding crisis offers a stark reminder of how quickly a war can spill over into the energy sphere, affecting not only the belligerents but also the broader continent's economic and security landscape.