Warm Forecast At 2026 Open Championship Calls For Sun And Light Winds
Unusually warm and sunny conditions are forecasted for the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, creating firm and fast playing surfaces. This weather will thin out the rough but make fairways and greens exceptionally challenging to hold, echoing conditions seen at Carnoustie in 2018. Rory McIlroy noted the less penal rough might prompt aggressive driving to clear fairway bunkers, accepting a wedge from the rough. Players face a strategic choice: club down for control or drive boldly for position. Precise iron play and driving will be paramount to navigate bunkers and prevent balls from running through fairways. These unique, baked-out conditions are anticipated to give an edge to seasoned links golf specialists.
The weather forecast tells the story for playing conditions for the 2026 Open Championship, held at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. Temperatures for the week have touched the low 80s, unusually warm conditions for the western side of England. The forecast for the tournament rounds is much of the same: sunny and warm conditions, winds in the 15 mph range, with limited to no rainfall.
This type of weather will produce firm and fast playing conditions for the players competing in the 155th Open Championship. Firm fast conditions like these have not been seen since the 2018 Open Championship at Carnoustie or the 2022 Open Championship at The Old Course.
While the baked out conditions at Royal Birkdale can thin out the rough, the firm and fast conditions also make fairways and greens trickier to hold. On the playing conditions, Rory McIlroy stated during his opening press conference that, "I think all this dry weather and sun and a little bit of wind is obviously great for the course in one way, but when I was here a couple weeks ago, the rough was a lot more penal than it's going to be this week. It's definitely burnt out a lot.
“The big thing, especially off the tee here, is the fairway bunkers and avoiding those. You might see some guys being more aggressive off the tee, taking driver, trying to take the fairway bunkers out of play.
"Okay, it might be in the rough, but it's not that penal, so you get a wedge in your hand and you can figure it out from there.”
Avoiding bunkers at Royal Birkdale will be important to score this week, which will require precise iron and driving. However, with the firm fairways and the distance modern tour players hit the ball, avoiding running the ball through the fairway will also be important. This may cause some players to club down off the tee, opting for fairway woods or driving irons instead of driver. However, as McIlroy pointed out, hitting a wedge from the rough after driving it closer with driver may be a worthwhile strategy for some.
Firm and fast conditions may favor certain players over others. Players who grew up on links golf, like Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Shane Lowry may draw on experience that can advantage them over their fellow competitors.
High 80, Low 58. Partly sunny and very warm. Winds at 9 mph out of the north.
High 76, Low 57. Decreasing clouds and warm. Winds at 10 mph out of the northwest.
High 72, Low 54. Cooling with partial sunshine. Winds at 10 mph out of the northwest.
High 71, Low 59. Partly sunny. Winds at 10 mph out of the north-northwest.