Will Starmer stay in No 10 longer than England stay in the World Cup?
He’s faced a difficult few weeks amid mounting scrutiny over his team selection and doubts over his wider strategy after a string of poor performances. If England bow out at this summer’s World Cup, will he survive?
No, we’re not talking about team manager, Thomas Tuchel, but the beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
It’s been an up and down month for the Labour leader, with the party taking a whacking seats in the local elections, his health minister resigning, rivals circling and his beloved Arsenal only managing to complete one half of the ‘double’.
The Prime Minister will be hoping to take advantage of the unity that spreads across England at the time of a major tournament, with pubs full and “it’s coming home” blasted across mainstream radio.
But bookmaker William Hill believes that the Prime Minister may not be able to enjoy the whole tournament in his No. 10 living room. William Hill has priced Starmer to leave office before England exit the World Cup at 10/1.
Tournaments like the World Cup attract regular punters but also tacit gamblers who look for value – and Starmer sitting in a removal van come July looks more likely than a variety of bets this World Cup.
Take Erling Haaland, the winner of the 25/26 Premier League Golden Boot with 27 goals who is only priced at 12/1 with Paddy Power to win the equivalent prize in North America this summer. Although Haaland’s nation have only got as far as the round of 16 you would fancy the Nordic striker to get very close, nonetheless.
To put Starmer’s chances in another perspective, Leicester City were 5000/1 to win the Premier League in 2016 and Leicester didn’t have to battle with an Epstein associate, missing WhatsApp messages, and numerous cabinet resignations.
Rational betters may think it is harsh on Leicester for them to have been 455 times less likely to win the league than Starmer to be gone before the 4th highest ranked team at the World Cup.
England to win the tournament outright are as short as 6/1 so this offer is certainly enticing for punters. Despite the controversy surrounding players such as Harry Maguire and Cole Palmer not making the plane, England have one of their best opportunities to bring it home this summer.
William Hill are also offering 11/4 for President Trump to attend an England match at the World Cup. Therefore, combining the two bets makes for a tasty 40.25/1 double and with a high enough stake your winnings could probably just about pay for a back row seat at one of the matches.
President Trump has a history of making himself the centre of attention and if England go all the way, who knows, maybe Keir Starmer will be watching Trump celebrating England’s World Cup triumph.
In any case, the betting odds make for a bleak reflection on the Prime Minister, who as of today has a higher chance of exiting Downing Street before England exit the world cup than Uzbekistan has of lifting the coveted World Cup trophy.