Worst market in almost 30 years threatens Obama reelection

State Beacon Published May 22, 2012 Reviewed Jul 2, 2026 ✓ Reviewed by citations.press editors

The S&P 500 is up 1.3% since Mitt Romney’s campaign began 12 months ago.

1.3 % · Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Bloomberg, data compiler

Average gain for incumbents who won re-election starting with Harry S. Truman is 12%.

12 % · incumbents who won re-election starting with Harry S. Truman Bloomberg, data compiler

Stocks advanced less than 7% for George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford — the three incumbents who lost re-election bids.

more than 7 % · George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford Bloomberg, data compiler

The S&P 500 declined 8.7% since April 2.

8.7 % · Standard & Poor’s 500 Index

Haverford Trust Co. manages $6 billion.

6 billion · Haverford Trust Co. Tim Hoyle, director of research at Radnor, Pennsylvania-based Haverford Trust Co.

Tim Hoyle, the director of research at Haverford Trust Co., stated that his company manages $6 billion.

6 billion USD · assets under management Tim Hoyle, director of research

The Obama administration presided over 11 quarters of economic growth.

11 quarters · economic growth

The U.S. experienced the worst recession in 70 years before Obama took office.

7 decades · worst recession

President Obama currently faces the worst U.S. stock market since the middle of the Reagan presidency, according to Bloomberg:

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) is up 1.3 percent since Mitt Romney’s campaign began 12 months ago, compared with average gains of 12 percent for incumbents who won re-election starting with Harry S. Truman, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Stocks are also advancing less than the 7 percent minimum enjoyed by George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford, who lost their bids for a second term. The only one with a worse equity performance heading into the vote was Reagan.

Weakening equity markets after a three-year rally underscore the challenge faced by Obama, who took office during the worst recession in seven decades and has presided over 11 quarters of growth. While share returns do little to foretell presidential contests, the 8.7 percent decline in the S&P 500 since April 2 may be a sign investors are losing confidence in an accelerating recovery even as they anticipate more central bank spending to stimulate the economy. …

"Volatility in this election cycle is going to be extreme because you have really two diametrically opposed candidates on fiscal issues," said Tim Hoyle, the director of research at Radnor, Pennsylvania-based Haverford Trust Co., which manages $6 billion.

In 2008, "you had two candidates who were in different ways arguing for stimulus and to get the economy back on track," he said. "This time around, the president’s getting dealt such a short hand."

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