Bill Gray

“puts the stage at roughly 12 meters long, about the height of a five-story building, with a mass near 4,900 kg.”

“Gray expects a single crater around 17 meters across, reasoning by analogy with the double crater left by a Chang'e-5 T1 upper stage in 2022. The observation‑planning paper led by Benjamin Fernando p…”

“he predicts it will create a crater more than 17m (56ft) in diameter.”

“The piece is expected to hit the moon around 2:35 a.m. ET at more than 5,000 miles per hour, according to analysis by Bill Gray, who develops software that tracks objects in space.”

“The impact could leave a crater at least 17 meters in diameter, he said.”

“Space tracking expert Bill Gray estimates the rocket will hit the Moon at around 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) near Einstein Crater on the Moon's sunlit western edge.”

“In September 2025, his software for computing orbits analyzed the observations and projected an impact with the moon on Aug. 5, 2026.”

“It was Gray's work with Project Pluto that got the word out about the roughly four metric ton Falcon 9 upper stage intersection with the moon at over two kilometers a second.”