Citi research note

“Chinese carmakers could hold as much as 30% of the European automotive market by 2035 if Brussels leaves existing rules unchanged”

“The low end of the forecast range, 15%, depends on the European Union adopting the most restrictive version of its proposed Industrial Accelerator Act”

“Chinese brands currently account for roughly 10% of European car sales, up from a negligible share just five years ago.”

“Under these conditions, Chinese carmakers reach 30% market share by 2035.”

“Bringing them into scope would add cost to those imports and, Citi estimates, hold Chinese market share to 25% by 2035.”

“Citi projects this would drive Chinese market share down to 5% within two years, recovering only to 15% by 2035.”

“BYD has already begun this shift, announcing a factory in Szeged, Hungary, with production expected to start around 2026.”

“The EU's existing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles range up to 35.3% on top of the standard 10% import duty”

“In the base case scenario, other Asian carmakers, principally those from Japan and South Korea, see their combined European market share decline from 20% in 2025 to below 16% by 2035.”