Torsten Slok

“The booming buildout of infrastructure for AI needs so much more money–around $2 trillion–that the bond market can’t cover it.”

“Companies listed in the S&P 500 have reported $9.6 billion in additional earnings from the refunds.”

“Slok estimates the refund money will add about 0.2 percentage points to third‑quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed says is on track for a 4.3 percent annualised rate.”

“That would be a sharp rise from the 1.5 percent gain recorded in the second quarter and the 2.1 percent increase in the first quarter.”

“the economy would have added about 70,000 jobs in July, matching Wall Street expectations.”

“creating a roughly $1 trillion gap that could be filled by private credit”

“AI-related borrowing accounts for more than 40% of new long-term, investment-grade corporate debt, and that Apollo estimates the “AI ecosystem” could support more than $2 trillion in debt”

“Investment-grade markets may be able to absorb less than $1 trillion of that amount through 2030 because of “concentration and ratings constraints,” Slok wrote”

“The gap, totaling more than $1 trillion, could be filled by private lenders and other financing backed by infrastructure, equipment and individual AI projects, Slok said”

“"If AI overdelivers, it will impact financial stability. If AI underdelivers, it will impact financial stability."”

“"If AI overdelivers, it will impact financial stability. If AI underdelivers, it will impact financial stability."”