Exclusive | GOP claims it will pick up NY House seats despite Trump’s unpopularity

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Republicans are in a strong position to pick up congressional seats in New York in November, a defiant new GOP analysis claims — while Dems laughed off the notion as “fantasy.”

The analysis by the National Republican Campaign Committee suggests that GOP gubernatorial candidate and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman will run strong in the suburbs and upstate against Democratic incumbent Gov. Hochul — providing headwinds for party House candidates in some of the regions’ swing districts.

“In New York, Republicans are in the strongest electoral position possible because while Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the ground, Republicans are delivering,” said NRCC Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole.

“Taxes are down, communities are safer, and New Yorkers have President Trump and Republicans to thank for it.”

But the analysis ignores how deeply unpopular Trump is in the state: A Siena College poll released last week found that only 32% of New York voters view him favorably, while 63% view him unfavorably.

In the suburbs, where some key House races are being held, only 33% viewed Trump favorably and 60% unfavorably.

New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs laughed off the GOP analysis.

“I don’t think anyone is going to believe this fantasy,” Jacobs said. “Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon.”

But Blakeman won re-election as Nassau County executive last year by an impressive 11 percentage points after winning 50.3% of the vote in 2021, when he toppled Democratic incumbent Laura Curran, the NRCC analysis noted.

Republicans also swept every countywide office in Nassau on Long Island in 2025.

Within the 3rd Congressional District occupied by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, Blakeman carried Suozzi’s hometown of Glen Cove.

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In House District 4, occupied by first-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans also recorded a clean sweep of the Long Beach City Council elections last year, making the town council dominated entirely by the GOP for the first time in 54 years.

The House GOP analysis shows that President Trump carried the 3rd House District by 4.3 percentage points over Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost District 4 by only a half-percentage point.

In a surprise, Suozzi only squeaked by GOP former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri by 3 percentage points in the House District 3, which includes parts of Queens as well as Long Island, two years ago.

LiPetri is the GOP nominee in what could be a competitive rematch this year.

But the Cook Political Political Report, an independent grader of elections, said House District 3 “leans Democrat” this year.

It also said House District 4 “leans Democrat.”

Gillen faces off against Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, whom the Nassau GOP nominated after Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, currently the inspector general in the US Labor Department, declined to run.

Despite winning statewide by 6.4 percentage points in 2022, Hochul lost to former Long Island Rep Lee Zeldin by 8.5 points in District 3 and by 5.8 points in District 4, the GOP analysis noted.

In the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler faces a tough re-election bid against Army veteran Cait Conley, who won her Democratic primary election last week.

Lawler won re-election by 6 percentage points in 2024 after toppling ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a squeaker in 2022.

Hochul lost District 17 to Zeldin by 3.2 percentage points in 2022.

In the upstate 19th Congressional District, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker is challenging first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley.

Oberacker’s state Senate district makes up 37% of NY-19, which the GOP claims gives him a shot to win the seat, according to the NRCC analysis.

While favored to win a second full, four-year term as governor after replacing Andrew Cuomo, Hochul is not popular. In the Siena poll, 43% view her favorably and 44% unfavorably.

But Hochul leads Blakeman 52% to 32% in the horse race for governor.

Jacobs, who also serves as the Nassau County Democratic leader, said the GOP analysis is flawed for ignoring current conditions on the ground as opposed to focusing on prior years’s results.

“You can’t fight last year’s war. You fight the next one. Elections aren’t about years past but about the future in the now,” he said.